NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL LAS
Points 75.8 64.5
Total Points   140.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.3 29.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 27.5
Points From Free Throws 14.2 7.8
Shooting VILL LAS
Field Goals Made 26.4 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 60.1
Field Goal % 46.0% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 44.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 27.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.2 7.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 11.0
Free Throw % 79.7% 71.6%
Ball Control VILL LAS
Rebounds 38.6 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.8 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 6.9
Turnovers 7.8 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.4
Steals 4.3 5.0
Fouls 12.1 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL LAS
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 66.4
% of Possessions with VILL LAS
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 36.4%
Player Fouled 19.9% 17.9%
Turnover 11.5% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL LAS
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 18.3%