NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAV DAY
Points 64.0 72.7
Total Points   136.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.1 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 27.6
Points From Free Throws 9.2 15.2
Shooting DAV DAY
Field Goals Made 23.8 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 52.6
Field Goal % 40.7% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 15.0
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 28.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 53.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 9.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 9.2 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.5 20.3
Free Throw % 73.6% 74.7%
Ball Control DAV DAY
Rebounds 31.9 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 7.5
Turnovers 9.1 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.3
Steals 5.3 5.3
Fouls 14.9 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAV DAY
Total Possessions 66.7
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 64.6
% of Possessions with DAV DAY
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 37.3%
3 Point Attempt 33.2% 32.3%
Player Fouled 18.3% 22.3%
Turnover 13.7% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAV DAY
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 24.1%