NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAV PROV
Points 63.2 69.5
Total Points   132.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 29.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 24.8
Points From Free Throws 12.3 15.5
Shooting DAV PROV
Field Goals Made 22.3 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 54.2
Field Goal % 38.7% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 27.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 12.3 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 20.7
Free Throw % 73.6% 74.5%
Ball Control DAV PROV
Rebounds 33.3 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 8.9
Turnovers 10.0 11.3
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.0
Steals 6.5 5.9
Fouls 16.0 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Davidson

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAV PROV
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 67.0
% of Possessions with DAV PROV
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 35.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 33.2%
Player Fouled 20.8% 23.1%
Turnover 14.4% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAV PROV
Shot Blocked 7.5% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 26.1%