NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ CAL
Points 87.9 71.4
Total Points   159.3
Points From 2-Pointers 46.5 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 26.0
Points From Free Throws 18.2 11.6
Shooting ARIZ CAL
Field Goals Made 31.0 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.4 65.2
Field Goal % 48.9% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 37.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 18.2 11.6
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 15.8
Free Throw % 71.0% 73.2%
Ball Control ARIZ CAL
Rebounds 44.3 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 32.7 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 8.8
Turnovers 9.1 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.8
Steals 6.6 5.7
Fouls 14.0 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ CAL
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 74.5
% of Possessions with ARIZ CAL
2 Point Attempt 47.9% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 31.5%
Player Fouled 21.8% 18.3%
Turnover 11.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ CAL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.6% 21.2%