NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ CAL
Points 87.8 71.2
Total Points   159.0
Points From 2-Pointers 46.4 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 25.9
Points From Free Throws 18.1 11.5
Shooting ARIZ CAL
Field Goals Made 31.0 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.3 65.0
Field Goal % 48.9% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 18.1 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 15.8
Free Throw % 71.0% 73.2%
Ball Control ARIZ CAL
Rebounds 44.2 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 32.7 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 8.8
Turnovers 9.4 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.8
Steals 6.6 5.7
Fouls 13.9 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: California

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ CAL
Total Possessions 76.8
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 74.4
% of Possessions with ARIZ CAL
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 31.3%
Player Fouled 21.7% 18.2%
Turnover 12.3% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ CAL
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 31.6% 21.2%