NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNH
Points 76.5 61.5
Total Points   138.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 34.2
Points From 3-Pointers 28.8 20.9
Points From Free Throws 12.6 6.5
Shooting UNH
Field Goals Made 27.2 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 56.7
Field Goal % 46.2% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 31.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.9 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 27.6%
Free Throws Made 12.6 6.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.5 10.7
Free Throw % 76.0% 60.7%
Ball Control UNH
Rebounds 36.3 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.1 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 6.9
Turnovers 10.9 14.2
Blocked Shots 1.7 4.3
Steals 7.3 6.5
Fouls 11.4 13.8

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNH
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 63.9
% of Possessions with UNH
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 32.0%
Player Fouled 19.4% 16.1%
Turnover 15.4% 19.9%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNH
Shot Blocked 7.6% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 19.7%