NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ACU HCU
Points 85.4 69.8
Total Points   155.2
Points From 2-Pointers 52.6 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 12.5
Points From Free Throws 15.2 14.7
Shooting ACU HCU
Field Goals Made 32.2 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 63.2 55.5
Field Goal % 50.9% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 47.2 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 50.3%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 4.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 13.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 31.5%
Free Throws Made 15.2 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 23.0
Free Throw % 73.4% 64.1%
Ball Control ACU HCU
Rebounds 34.6 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 9.9
Turnovers 8.7 14.8
Blocked Shots 3.2 1.7
Steals 8.8 4.6
Fouls 16.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ACU HCU
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.1 70.1
% of Possessions with ACU HCU
2 Point Attempt 55.2% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 15.3%
Player Fouled 18.9% 21.9%
Turnover 11.6% 19.8%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 11.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ACU HCU
Shot Blocked 3.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 28.3%