NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW PSU
Points 72.5 71.8
Total Points   144.3
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 19.8 21.7
Points From Free Throws 15.2 16.6
Shooting NW PSU
Field Goals Made 25.3 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 51.8
Field Goal % 45.2% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 20.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 15.2 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 22.1
Free Throw % 75.6% 74.9%
Ball Control NW PSU
Rebounds 32.9 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 6.5
Turnovers 9.9 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.8
Steals 6.2 5.8
Fouls 16.3 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW PSU
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 65.0
% of Possessions with NW PSU
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 26.5%
Player Fouled 23.7% 23.4%
Turnover 14.3% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW PSU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 21.0%