NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL PENN
Points 77.9 64.4
Total Points   142.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.7 27.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.0 29.1
Points From Free Throws 12.2 8.2
Shooting VILL PENN
Field Goals Made 27.0 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 57.7
Field Goal % 47.2% 40.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 13.6
2 Pointers Attempted 25.6 28.1
2 Point Shooting % 59.9% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 12.2 8.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 11.6
Free Throw % 79.7% 70.2%
Ball Control VILL PENN
Rebounds 36.0 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 6.9
Turnovers 7.2 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.4 1.8
Steals 4.7 4.5
Fouls 11.9 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: U Penn

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL PENN
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 64.7
% of Possessions with VILL PENN
2 Point Attempt 34.5% 37.6%
3 Point Attempt 42.5% 39.5%
Player Fouled 18.4% 17.8%
Turnover 10.8% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL PENN
Shot Blocked 3.2% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 19.2%