NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL SJU
Points 69.0 72.1
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 28.3 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.4 22.9
Points From Free Throws 14.2 11.2
Shooting VILL SJU
Field Goals Made 23.0 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 61.0
Field Goal % 40.5% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.1 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 14.2 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 15.1
Free Throw % 79.7% 74.2%
Ball Control VILL SJU
Rebounds 33.4 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.9 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 10.7
Turnovers 10.0 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.9 6.3
Steals 5.2 5.5
Fouls 13.3 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL SJU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 70.7
% of Possessions with VILL SJU
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 29.7%
Player Fouled 21.0% 19.3%
Turnover 14.5% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL SJU
Shot Blocked 10.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 29.2%