NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW MSU
Points 67.3 71.6
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 25.9 19.3
Points From Free Throws 12.4 13.4
Shooting NW MSU
Field Goals Made 23.1 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.4 53.4
Field Goal % 41.8% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 12.4 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 18.5
Free Throw % 75.6% 72.5%
Ball Control NW MSU
Rebounds 29.7 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 7.8
Turnovers 8.9 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.2
Steals 5.3 5.3
Fouls 15.1 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW MSU
Total Possessions 66.3
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 64.5
% of Possessions with NW MSU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 22.5%
Player Fouled 22.7% 22.7%
Turnover 13.4% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW MSU
Shot Blocked 8.1% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 25.7%