NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL ASU
Points 70.8 63.6
Total Points   134.4
Points From 2-Pointers 26.4 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.8 22.2
Points From Free Throws 13.6 9.9
Shooting VILL ASU
Field Goals Made 23.5 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.1 57.9
Field Goal % 41.8% 40.0%
2 Pointers Made 13.2 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 26.1 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 30.0 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 13.6 9.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 15.2
Free Throw % 79.7% 65.3%
Ball Control VILL ASU
Rebounds 38.5 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 31.5 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 6.3
Turnovers 10.7 8.7
Blocked Shots 1.8 4.2
Steals 4.7 6.9
Fouls 14.1 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL ASU
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 67.0
% of Possessions with VILL ASU
2 Point Attempt 33.3% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 38.4% 33.4%
Player Fouled 19.3% 20.2%
Turnover 15.3% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL ASU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 16.6%