NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW MD
Points 66.3 66.4
Total Points   132.6
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 16.9
Points From Free Throws 13.9 17.1
Shooting NW MD
Field Goals Made 22.9 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 49.8
Field Goal % 41.3% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 31.2
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 13.9 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 23.4
Free Throw % 75.6% 73.1%
Ball Control NW MD
Rebounds 31.4 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 8.0
Turnovers 8.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.5
Steals 5.8 4.6
Fouls 16.8 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Northwestern

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW MD
Total Possessions 66.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 63.8
% of Possessions with NW MD
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 24.4%
Player Fouled 24.2% 25.2%
Turnover 13.3% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW MD
Shot Blocked 9.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 25.5%