NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK LSU
Points 88.2 78.0
Total Points   166.3
Points From 2-Pointers 43.0 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 29.2 26.7
Points From Free Throws 16.1 17.5
Shooting UK LSU
Field Goals Made 31.2 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 62.1
Field Goal % 49.5% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 21.5 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.3 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 24.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 16.1 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 23.8
Free Throw % 78.2% 73.3%
Ball Control UK LSU
Rebounds 37.6 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.6
Turnovers 10.6 11.9
Blocked Shots 6.7 3.2
Steals 8.3 6.7
Fouls 15.1 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK LSU
Total Possessions 77.0
Effective Scoring Chances 75.4 75.7
% of Possessions with UK LSU
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 26.7%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.5%
Turnover 13.7% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK LSU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 10.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 27.1%