NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ACU UTRGV
Points 77.9 70.3
Total Points   148.2
Points From 2-Pointers 46.6 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.7 13.3
Points From Free Throws 15.6 17.2
Shooting ACU UTRGV
Field Goals Made 28.5 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.3 54.2
Field Goal % 48.1% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 23.3 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 4.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.2 15.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 29.2%
Free Throws Made 15.6 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 24.1
Free Throw % 73.4% 71.1%
Ball Control ACU UTRGV
Rebounds 35.0 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 7.6
Turnovers 11.7 14.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.0
Steals 7.5 6.3
Fouls 17.5 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: TX-Pan Am

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ACU UTRGV
Total Possessions 75.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 69.0
% of Possessions with ACU UTRGV
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 18.0%
Player Fouled 21.5% 23.2%
Turnover 15.5% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ACU UTRGV
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 22.6%