NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COOK NCST
Points 60.0 83.9
Total Points   143.9
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 20.5
Points From Free Throws 13.6 23.3
Shooting COOK NCST
Field Goals Made 20.9 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 53.5
Field Goal % 36.3% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 35.6
2 Point Shooting % 38.8% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 17.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.8% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 13.6 23.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 32.1
Free Throw % 75.9% 72.6%
Ball Control COOK NCST
Rebounds 30.1 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.5
Turnovers 12.7 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.7
Steals 5.9 8.3
Fouls 19.0 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COOK NCST
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 73.0
% of Possessions with COOK NCST
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 21.3%
Player Fouled 18.7% 26.2%
Turnover 17.6% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken COOK NCST
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 33.0%