NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV USU
Points 71.0 70.6
Total Points   141.6
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 17.6
Points From Free Throws 16.8 17.5
Shooting NEV USU
Field Goals Made 24.1 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 53.3
Field Goal % 44.8% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.8% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 16.8 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 24.1
Free Throw % 71.2% 72.5%
Ball Control NEV USU
Rebounds 33.1 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 8.2
Turnovers 9.4 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.8
Steals 5.6 4.9
Fouls 17.7 18.8

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV USU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 68.1
% of Possessions with NEV USU
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 24.3%
Player Fouled 27.0% 25.4%
Turnover 13.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV USU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 24.4%