NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV SDSU
Points 66.6 67.7
Total Points   134.3
Points From 2-Pointers 29.0 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 19.5
Points From Free Throws 17.6 17.0
Shooting NEV SDSU
Field Goals Made 21.2 22.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.0 54.6
Field Goal % 41.5% 40.5%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.5 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 22.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 29.6%
Free Throws Made 17.6 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 23.0
Free Throw % 71.2% 73.7%
Ball Control NEV SDSU
Rebounds 33.4 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 11.2
Turnovers 10.5 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.6 3.0
Steals 5.6 5.8
Fouls 17.5 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV SDSU
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 69.1
% of Possessions with NEV SDSU
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 27.5%
Player Fouled 28.9% 25.7%
Turnover 15.5% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV SDSU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 31.1%