NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV UNM
Points 71.1 72.2
Total Points   143.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.9 17.2
Points From Free Throws 17.4 15.9
Shooting NEV UNM
Field Goals Made 23.8 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 61.0
Field Goal % 44.5% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 5.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.1 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 17.4 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 22.0
Free Throw % 71.2% 72.3%
Ball Control NEV UNM
Rebounds 35.1 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 11.9
Turnovers 11.1 8.8
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.9
Steals 5.3 6.2
Fouls 16.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV UNM
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 74.2
% of Possessions with NEV UNM
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 22.4%
Player Fouled 26.1% 22.5%
Turnover 15.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV UNM
Shot Blocked 6.4% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 30.6%