NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV CSU
Points 66.7 66.7
Total Points   133.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 19.4
Points From Free Throws 17.2 14.6
Shooting NEV CSU
Field Goals Made 22.0 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 50.7 52.1
Field Goal % 43.3% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 31.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 17.2 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 19.5
Free Throw % 71.2% 74.7%
Ball Control NEV CSU
Rebounds 33.3 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 7.0
Turnovers 9.4 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.1
Steals 5.0 4.5
Fouls 16.8 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV CSU
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 63.9
% of Possessions with NEV CSU
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 28.2%
Player Fouled 28.7% 25.2%
Turnover 14.1% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV CSU
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 22.0%