NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST UVA
Points 63.9 61.3
Total Points   125.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 18.7
Points From Free Throws 11.3 8.8
Shooting NCST UVA
Field Goals Made 23.3 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 58.0
Field Goal % 40.7% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 43.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 11.3 8.8
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 14.2
Free Throw % 72.6% 62.1%
Ball Control NCST UVA
Rebounds 38.4 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 8.7
Turnovers 8.7 7.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.5
Steals 5.2 4.8
Fouls 11.4 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST UVA
Total Possessions 65.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 66.1
% of Possessions with NCST UVA
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 52.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 24.8%
Player Fouled 18.5% 17.4%
Turnover 13.3% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST UVA
Shot Blocked 8.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 23.2%