NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST WAKE
Points 73.0 74.1
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 18.8 22.3
Points From Free Throws 14.5 14.8
Shooting NCST WAKE
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 56.7
Field Goal % 44.4% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 14.5 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 18.7
Free Throw % 72.6% 79.2%
Ball Control NCST WAKE
Rebounds 33.4 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 27.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 7.6
Turnovers 8.6 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.4
Steals 6.3 4.3
Fouls 15.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST WAKE
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 67.8
% of Possessions with NCST WAKE
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 26.4%
Player Fouled 20.1% 21.9%
Turnover 12.1% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST WAKE
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 23.3%