NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST ND
Points 71.5 63.4
Total Points   134.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 27.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 23.6
Points From Free Throws 13.4 11.9
Shooting NCST ND
Field Goals Made 26.0 21.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 55.1
Field Goal % 44.4% 39.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 13.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 13.4 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 16.1
Free Throw % 72.6% 73.7%
Ball Control NCST ND
Rebounds 35.4 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.1
Turnovers 7.3 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.1
Steals 6.8 4.0
Fouls 12.9 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST ND
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.9 64.9
% of Possessions with NCST ND
2 Point Attempt 51.0% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 30.2%
Player Fouled 20.0% 19.0%
Turnover 10.8% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST ND
Shot Blocked 3.8% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 26.0%