NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST UNC
Points 70.9 78.2
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 23.9
Points From Free Throws 14.1 16.5
Shooting NCST UNC
Field Goals Made 25.4 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.5 62.1
Field Goal % 41.3% 43.2%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.8 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 14.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 21.9
Free Throw % 72.6% 75.4%
Ball Control NCST UNC
Rebounds 34.3 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 11.9
Turnovers 8.0 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.5
Steals 5.2 4.2
Fouls 15.3 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: N Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST UNC
Total Possessions 72.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 75.3
% of Possessions with NCST UNC
2 Point Attempt 52.1% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 25.9%
Player Fouled 20.5% 21.1%
Turnover 11.0% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST UNC
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 31.2%