NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH PUR
Points 66.6 86.8
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 45.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 23.9
Points From Free Throws 9.9 17.5
Shooting MICH PUR
Field Goals Made 24.6 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 60.0
Field Goal % 40.0% 51.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 22.7
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 41.9%
Free Throws Made 9.9 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 24.0
Free Throw % 70.8% 72.8%
Ball Control MICH PUR
Rebounds 29.3 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.6
Turnovers 9.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.7
Steals 4.1 6.3
Fouls 17.7 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH PUR
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 75.0
% of Possessions with MICH PUR
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 22.6%
Player Fouled 17.7% 25.0%
Turnover 13.9% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH PUR
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 38.1%