NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH ILL
Points 73.0 88.1
Total Points   161.1
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 46.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 24.2
Points From Free Throws 12.5 17.1
Shooting MICH ILL
Field Goals Made 27.0 31.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.4 62.9
Field Goal % 43.3% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 23.4
2 Pointers Attempted 44.4 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 56.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 12.5 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 23.2
Free Throw % 70.8% 73.8%
Ball Control MICH ILL
Rebounds 32.3 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 12.1
Turnovers 8.9 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.9
Steals 3.3 5.0
Fouls 16.1 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH ILL
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 76.9
% of Possessions with MICH ILL
2 Point Attempt 53.4% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 21.7% 25.5%
Player Fouled 18.9% 22.4%
Turnover 12.3% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 4.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH ILL
Shot Blocked 6.2% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 34.8%