NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVU NAU
Points 72.9 64.1
Total Points   137.0
Points From 2-Pointers 45.3 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 11.7 17.5
Points From Free Throws 15.8 12.6
Shooting UVU NAU
Field Goals Made 26.6 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 56.1
Field Goal % 45.8% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.2 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 3.9 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 14.7 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 26.5% 30.3%
Free Throws Made 15.8 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 18.2
Free Throw % 65.3% 69.2%
Ball Control UVU NAU
Rebounds 39.6 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 7.5
Turnovers 9.8 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.5
Steals 7.4 5.2
Fouls 15.8 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Utah Valley

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVU NAU
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 66.8
% of Possessions with UVU NAU
2 Point Attempt 51.5% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 23.9%
Player Fouled 23.2% 22.1%
Turnover 13.7% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVU NAU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.5% 20.7%