NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH PSU
Points 70.5 77.8
Total Points   148.3
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.6 22.5
Points From Free Throws 15.5 15.2
Shooting MICH PSU
Field Goals Made 24.6 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 59.9
Field Goal % 44.9% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 21.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 15.5 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 20.3
Free Throw % 70.8% 74.9%
Ball Control MICH PSU
Rebounds 36.8 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 23.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.7
Turnovers 14.0 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.8
Steals 3.9 8.6
Fouls 15.7 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH PSU
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.5 72.1
% of Possessions with MICH PSU
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 25.8%
Player Fouled 22.7% 21.7%
Turnover 19.4% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 11.9% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH PSU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.6% 24.7%