NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVU SJU
Points 60.9 78.6
Total Points   139.5
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 13.6 18.8
Points From Free Throws 13.9 16.1
Shooting UVU SJU
Field Goals Made 21.2 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 60.8
Field Goal % 36.3% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.6 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.2% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.6% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 13.9 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 21.7
Free Throw % 65.3% 74.2%
Ball Control UVU SJU
Rebounds 34.0 42.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.3 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 12.4
Turnovers 11.9 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 7.3
Steals 6.0 6.7
Fouls 15.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: St Johns

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVU SJU
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.5 74.3
% of Possessions with UVU SJU
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 21.5%
Player Fouled 22.6% 21.7%
Turnover 16.6% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVU SJU
Shot Blocked 12.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 34.8%