NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH MSU
Points 64.6 77.2
Total Points   141.9
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 45.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 19.8
Points From Free Throws 12.5 12.3
Shooting MICH MSU
Field Goals Made 22.2 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 61.3
Field Goal % 40.9% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 22.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 43.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.9% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 12.5 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 16.9
Free Throw % 70.8% 72.5%
Ball Control MICH MSU
Rebounds 32.9 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.4
Turnovers 12.5 7.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.2
Steals 3.3 7.8
Fouls 14.5 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH MSU
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.0 71.5
% of Possessions with MICH MSU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 54.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 21.6%
Player Fouled 21.6% 21.0%
Turnover 18.2% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH MSU
Shot Blocked 7.0% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 30.1%