NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH NW
Points 70.0 77.7
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 24.6
Points From Free Throws 14.6 13.2
Shooting MICH NW
Field Goals Made 24.1 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.4 59.7
Field Goal % 47.0% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 31.9 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 41.0%
Free Throws Made 14.6 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 17.4
Free Throw % 70.8% 75.6%
Ball Control MICH NW
Rebounds 33.0 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 8.1
Turnovers 12.3 7.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.7
Steals 3.3 7.8
Fouls 15.3 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH NW
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 63.7 69.6
% of Possessions with MICH NW
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 25.6%
Player Fouled 23.0% 22.3%
Turnover 17.9% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 11.3% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH NW
Shot Blocked 6.3% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 24.0%