NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GT LOU
Points 79.0 71.4
Total Points   150.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.1 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 27.5 16.9
Points From Free Throws 14.5 16.7
Shooting GT LOU
Field Goals Made 27.7 24.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 59.1
Field Goal % 47.8% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 39.5
2 Point Shooting % 56.3% 47.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 14.5 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 22.5
Free Throw % 73.6% 74.2%
Ball Control GT LOU
Rebounds 37.7 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.3
Turnovers 11.0 8.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.3
Steals 4.9 5.4
Fouls 16.1 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Louisville

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GT LOU
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 72.3
% of Possessions with GT LOU
2 Point Attempt 40.1% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 23.7%
Player Fouled 20.7% 22.4%
Turnover 15.3% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GT LOU
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 24.8%