NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GT UNC
Points 71.5 80.5
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 27.4
Points From Free Throws 12.5 14.0
Shooting GT UNC
Field Goals Made 25.9 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 62.5
Field Goal % 42.5% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.4 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 12.5 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 19.5
Free Throw % 68.6% 72.0%
Ball Control GT UNC
Rebounds 36.0 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.9
Turnovers 10.4 8.8
Blocked Shots 4.2 4.4
Steals 4.9 5.8
Fouls 14.4 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: North Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GT UNC
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 73.8
% of Possessions with GT UNC
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 29.0%
Player Fouled 19.1% 19.7%
Turnover 14.2% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GT UNC
Shot Blocked 7.2% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 27.0%