NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GT UNC
Points 70.1 88.1
Total Points   158.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 29.9
Points From Free Throws 10.1 18.0
Shooting GT UNC
Field Goals Made 26.3 30.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.8 62.3
Field Goal % 40.5% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 45.5 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.4% 57.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 10.1 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.0 25.8
Free Throw % 67.7% 69.7%
Ball Control GT UNC
Rebounds 34.7 42.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 31.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 11.0
Turnovers 9.5 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.3
Steals 4.0 6.0
Fouls 16.5 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: North Carolina

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GT UNC
Total Possessions 73.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 77.7
% of Possessions with GT UNC
2 Point Attempt 53.8% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 31.6%
Player Fouled 16.8% 22.3%
Turnover 12.9% 9.8%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken GT UNC
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 30.1%