NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AKR BUFF
Points 77.2 63.0
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 35.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.6 17.4
Points From Free Throws 13.7 10.0
Shooting AKR BUFF
Field Goals Made 27.8 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 58.0
Field Goal % 45.9% 40.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.7 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 25.5%
Free Throws Made 13.7 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 14.0
Free Throw % 72.9% 71.6%
Ball Control AKR BUFF
Rebounds 39.1 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.0
Turnovers 9.0 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.5
Steals 5.5 4.9
Fouls 13.1 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AKR BUFF
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 66.6
% of Possessions with AKR BUFF
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 44.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 28.7%
Player Fouled 20.4% 18.7%
Turnover 12.9% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken AKR BUFF
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 22.0%