NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AKR BUFF
Points 75.5 79.9
Total Points   155.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 48.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 17.7
Points From Free Throws 14.1 13.5
Shooting AKR BUFF
Field Goals Made 27.0 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 65.2 69.2
Field Goal % 41.4% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 24.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 50.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.5% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.6 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 14.1 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 20.2
Free Throw % 76.2% 66.7%
Ball Control AKR BUFF
Rebounds 36.6 46.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 29.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 16.5
Turnovers 10.4 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.6
Steals 4.3 6.1
Fouls 15.2 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Buffalo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AKR BUFF
Total Possessions 76.3
Effective Scoring Chances 76.5 82.1
% of Possessions with AKR BUFF
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 53.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 19.6%
Player Fouled 21.2% 19.9%
Turnover 13.7% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken AKR BUFF
Shot Blocked 5.2% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 38.7%