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Arkansas at Miss State
Sat Oct 3, 2020
7:30pm ET
Starkville, MS
Arkansas at Miss State: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Mississippi St. by 16.5, Total Points: 68
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | ARK | adv | MSST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 5-7-0 | 3-8-1 | |
| vs Conference | 4-4-0 | 1-6-1 | |
| Streak | L3 | P1 | |
| Last 5 | 1-4-0 | 1-3-1 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 2-7-1 | |
| Home | 1-6-0 | 2-5-1 | |
| Away | 4-1-0 | 1-3-0 |
Arkansas Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02 | Home | W Carolina | -38.0 | W by 43 | +5.0 |
| 09/09 | Home | Kent St | -38.0 | W by 22 | -16.0 |
| 09/16 | Home | BYU | -8.0 | L by 7 | -15.0 |
| 09/23 | Away | LSU | +17.5 | L by 3 | +14.5 |
| 09/30 | Neutral | Texas A&M | +6.5 | L by 12 | -5.5 |
| 10/07 | Away | Mississippi | +13.0 | L by 7 | +6.0 |
| 10/14 | Away | Alabama | +19.0 | L by 3 | +16.0 |
| 10/21 | Home | Miss State | -7.0 | L by 4 | -11.0 |
| 11/04 | Away | Florida | +3.0 | W by 3 | +6.0 |
| 11/11 | Home | Auburn | -2.0 | L by 38 | -40.0 |
| 11/18 | Home | Florida Intl | -26.5 | W by 24 | -2.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | Missouri | +9.5 | L by 34 | -24.5 |
Miss State Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02 | Home | SE Louisiana | -31.5 | W by 41 | +9.5 |
| 09/09 | Home | Arizona | -9.0 | W by 7 | -2.0 |
| 09/16 | Home | LSU | +9.5 | L by 27 | -17.5 |
| 09/23 | Away | S Carolina | +6.0 | L by 7 | -1.0 |
| 09/30 | Home | Alabama | +16.5 | L by 23 | -6.5 |
| 10/07 | Home | W Michigan | -21.5 | W by 13 | -8.5 |
| 10/21 | Away | Arkansas | +7.0 | W by 4 | +11.0 |
| 10/28 | Away | Auburn | +6.5 | L by 14 | -7.5 |
| 11/04 | Home | Kentucky | +5.5 | L by 21 | -15.5 |
| 11/11 | Away | Texas A&M | +16.5 | L by 41 | -24.5 |
| 11/18 | Home | S Mississippi | -18.5 | W by 21 | +2.5 |
| 11/23 | Home | Mississippi | +10.0 | L by 10 | 0.0 |
| MSST -16.5 | Open | -17.5 | High | -18.0 |
| Last | -17.0 | Low | -16.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 college football season there have been 190 games where the closing line favored the home team by 15.5 to 17.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Mississippi State won the game 170 times (89.5%).
- The team like Arkansas won the game 20 times (10.5%).
- The team like Mississippi State did better against the spread, going 107-80-3 (57.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 2.6 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 college football season there have been 14 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 0.5 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Arkansas did better against the spread, going 7-6-1 (53.8% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 1.7 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -16.5 | -17.0 | -- |
| Open | -17.0 | -17.0 | -- |
| History | |||
| 10/03 07:29 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 07:26 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 06:50 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 06:26 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 04:17 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 03:41 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 03:26 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 12:59 PM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 11:11 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 09:44 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 08:50 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 08:24 AM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 10/03 08:08 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 07:44 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 06:53 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/03 02:38 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/02 08:02 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/02 07:29 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/02 06:14 PM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 10/02 06:02 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/02 03:04 PM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 10/02 02:53 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/02 09:54 AM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 10/02 09:44 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/02 12:34 AM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 10/01 09:38 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/01 02:17 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/01 12:14 PM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 10/01 11:35 AM | -16.5 | -- | -- |
| 10/01 06:41 AM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 10/01 01:41 AM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/30 07:32 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/30 01:32 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/30 11:17 AM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/30 08:05 AM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/29 01:14 PM | -- | -18.0 | -- |
| 09/29 01:02 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/29 10:54 AM | -- | -18.0 | -- |
| 09/29 10:24 AM | -- | -18.0 | -- |
| 09/29 03:14 AM | -- | -18.0 | -- |
| 09/29 02:26 AM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 10:20 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 07:53 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 05:23 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 04:47 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 12:34 PM | -- | -18.0 | -- |
| 09/28 12:29 PM | -18.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 10:59 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/28 10:54 AM | -- | -17.5 | -- |
| 09/28 10:08 AM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
| 09/27 05:54 PM | -- | -17.0 | -- |
| 09/27 05:37 PM | -17.0 | -- | -- |
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