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Projections last updated: Sep 10, 2023 Rushing Receiving Fantasy
Rank Player Team Bye Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FPts
1 Christian McCaffrey SF 9 207 924 4.5 7.4 98 71 566 8.0 3.1 212.0
2 Bijan Robinson ATL 11 237 1146 4.8 8.4 52 38 331 8.7 1.8 208.9
3 Nick Chubb CLE 5 266 1232 4.6 9.3 35 26 218 8.2 1.0 206.7
4 Derrick Henry TEN 7 287 1247 4.3 9.5 28 22 186 8.5 0.5 203.3
5 Austin Ekeler LAC 5 191 786 4.1 6.4 90 74 586 7.9 4.3 201.4
6 Tony Pollard DAL 7 224 1006 4.5 8.1 67 46 370 8.1 2.0 198.2
7 Josh Jacobs LV 13 236 1103 4.7 8.8 49 33 237 7.2 0.7 190.9
8 Saquon Barkley NYG 13 237 1037 4.4 7.9 60 47 320 6.8 1.2 190.3
9 Najee Harris PIT 6 236 977 4.1 7.2 34 26 180 6.8 1.0 164.9
10 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 11 188 872 4.6 5.9 62 45 327 7.2 1.0 161.3
11 Kenneth Walker III SEA 5 197 943 4.8 6.7 36 27 192 7.2 0.3 155.5
12 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 9 159 721 4.5 5.6 66 46 351 7.6 2.2 154.0
13 Breece Hall NYJ 7 167 782 4.7 5.2 51 39 325 8.4 1.8 152.7
14 Alexander Mattison MIN 13 188 774 4.1 7.1 44 33 231 7.1 1.1 149.7
15 Joe Mixon CIN 7 192 787 4.1 6.5 36 34 237 7.0 1.2 148.6
16 Miles Sanders CAR 7 220 971 4.4 6.2 21 16 109 6.9 0.4 147.6
17 Dameon Pierce HOU 7 200 846 4.2 6.5 32 27 194 7.2 0.7 147.3
18 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC 9 188 822 4.4 6.3 39 30 214 7.1 0.9 146.8
19 Aaron Jones GB 6 155 748 4.8 4.9 54 38 306 8.0 1.5 143.8
20 J.K. Dobbins BAL 13 189 933 4.9 5.7 19 13 90 6.7 0.8 141.4
21 Isiah Pacheco KC 10 166 795 4.8 5.7 29 22 177 8.1 1.5 140.3
22 David Montgomery DET 9 171 775 4.5 7.4 24 17 117 7.0 0.4 136.0
23 Cam Akers LAR 10 193 830 4.3 6.0 25 18 125 7.1 0.5 134.4
24 James Conner ARI 14 173 699 4.0 5.6 43 33 235 7.2 0.7 131.2
25 Khalil Herbert CHI 13 174 825 4.7 5.4 25 17 117 7.1 0.4 129.0
26 Brian Robinson WAS 14 188 819 4.4 5.8 19 12 89 7.2 0.3 127.4
27 Javonte Williams DEN 9 154 677 4.4 5.1 41 30 221 7.3 0.8 125.1
28 AJ Dillon GB 6 166 706 4.3 6.3 23 15 120 7.8 0.4 122.9
29 James Cook BUF 13 119 543 4.6 2.3 64 46 351 7.6 2.4 117.6
30 Rachaad White TB 5 145 607 4.2 4.3 42 34 251 7.3 0.8 116.3
31 D'Andre Swift PHI 10 142 627 4.4 4.4 43 31 233 7.5 0.5 115.4
32 Alvin Kamara NO 11 110 475 4.3 2.7 62 44 343 7.8 2.1 110.5
33 Jonathan Taylor IND 11 142 652 4.6 4.1 31 24 162 6.8 0.7 110.2
34 Dalvin Cook NYJ 7 140 603 4.3 3.6 38 30 216 7.3 0.9 108.8
35 Antonio Gibson WAS 14 94 441 4.7 3.4 61 44 346 7.9 1.4 107.5
36 Zach Charbonnet SEA 5 123 569 4.6 3.7 39 29 223 7.7 0.5 104.3
37 Samaje Perine DEN 9 133 546 4.1 3.4 37 30 213 7.1 1.2 103.5
38 Raheem Mostert MIA 10 124 524 4.2 4.3 29 21 159 7.7 0.9 99.5
39 Tank Bigsby JAC 9 109 454 4.2 3.2 43 29 245 8.3 1.4 97.5
40 Tyler Allgeier ATL 11 134 625 4.7 4.4 12 9 65 7.3 0.3 97.2
41 Elijah Mitchell SF 9 125 580 4.6 4.3 18 13 93 7.4 0.3 94.9
42 Rashaad Penny PHI 10 109 501 4.6 6.1 13 9 64 6.8 0.2 94.2
43 Roschon Johnson CHI 13 119 526 4.4 3.0 33 23 174 7.7 0.9 93.4
44 Devon Achane MIA 10 94 430 4.6 2.8 41 33 247 7.4 1.2 91.7
45 Kyren Williams LAR 10 109 453 4.2 2.9 41 29 219 7.7 1.0 90.6
46 Ezekiel Elliott NE 11 112 466 4.2 4.7 25 21 139 6.7 0.3 90.5
46 Kenneth Gainwell PHI 10 109 488 4.5 4.3 27 19 136 7.1 0.4 90.5
46 Jaylen Warren PIT 6 95 433 4.6 2.6 44 32 244 7.7 1.2 90.5
49 Jerick McKinnon KC 10 71 311 4.4 2.3 45 33 262 8.0 2.7 87.4
50 Devin Singletary HOU 7 110 467 4.2 2.7 29 24 164 6.9 0.8 84.0

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Fantasy Football RB Projections 2023

If you want a more detailed look at how we project running backs for 2023, this is the page for you. In addition to rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdowns, you can also see how many rush attempts we project, what the yards per carry expectation is, and more. 

These 2023 fantasy football RB projections are the result of a lot of things. For one, we built team projections, using sports betting information such as the preseason over/under win totals for each team, as well as the passing and rushing stats from the previous year. You can see a fuller explanation here.

From there, we also had to divide up the team stats among players, using factors like how similar players had done in the past, how the team had distributed touches in the past, and projected depth charts. 

Why Do the Fantasy Football RB projections seem low?

You may look at a running back like Josh Jacobs and wonder why we have him projected for only 248 rush attempts, when he had 340 rushes last year and led the NFL in rushing yards. 

A primary reason is injury risk, which is part of our projection. Jacobs did not miss a game last year, so his volume stats a year ago were based on playing 17 games. In the previous three seasons, he averaged 244 attempts, while playing in an average of just over 14 games.

The reality is that a typical starting running back will average between 14 and 15 games played. Some will get hurt early; a few will play in every game. Our projections are based on an average outcome. Players that stay fully healthy (and where the team plays healthy, or the defense is far better than expected) have a good chance of exceeding the projection.

2023 Fantasy Football RB Projections Highlights

  • Derrick Henry is projected to lead the NFL in rush attempts, while Jonathan Taylor is just ahead of him in projected rushing yards. That's the same top two as a year ago, though injuries de-railed Taylor's season. 

  • Christian McCaffrey is our top projected running back in all formats, though the gap is a little closer in this one. McCaffrey rebounded from two tough injury-filled seasons and excelled after getting traded to San Francisco. 

  • Bijan Robinson is the top rookie, and is projected inside our top five at the position. Given his draft position, age, and the performance of similar rookies, that's not unreasonable.

  • We have several players in new places in 2023, with Miles Sanders going to Carolina, David Montgomery in Detroit, D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny in Philadelphia, Samaje Perine in Denver, and Devin Singletary in Houston as the most prominent moves.