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Projections last updated: Sep 10, 2023 Rushing Receiving Fantasy
Rank Player Team Bye Att Yds Y/A TD Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD FPts
1 Justin Jefferson MIN 13 4 17 4.1 0.4 169 104 1434 13.8 8.9 200.9
2 Tyreek Hill MIA 10 7 33 4.7 0.6 159 102 1349 13.2 9.0 195.8
3 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 7 3 14 4.1 0.1 157 101 1306 13.0 10.2 193.7
4 Stefon Diggs BUF 13 0 0 -- 0.0 156 101 1282 12.7 8.5 179.2
5 A.J. Brown PHI 10 2 11 6.2 0.1 142 89 1260 14.1 8.3 177.4
6 Garrett Wilson NYJ 7 3 15 4.9 0.1 148 90 1200 13.3 9.0 176.1
7 CeeDee Lamb DAL 7 9 43 4.9 0.4 145 92 1183 12.9 7.2 168.2
8 Davante Adams LV 13 1 4 2.8 0.0 145 91 1166 12.8 8.4 167.4
9 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 9 7 38 5.3 0.3 147 101 1165 11.6 6.9 163.5
10 Tee Higgins CIN 7 3 12 4.2 0.1 118 80 1049 13.1 8.8 159.6
11 Chris Olave NO 11 2 8 4.3 0.0 147 89 1168 13.2 6.7 157.8
12 Cooper Kupp LAR 10 5 30 5.9 0.3 136 87 1070 12.3 7.4 156.2
13 Jaylen Waddle MIA 10 3 14 5.5 0.1 132 86 1125 13.1 6.6 154.0
14 DK Metcalf SEA 5 2 10 5.7 0.1 131 83 1061 12.7 7.5 152.7
15 DeVonta Smith PHI 10 1 8 6.6 0.1 124 85 1056 12.4 6.5 146.0
16 Calvin Ridley JAC 9 0 0 -- 0.0 127 77 973 12.7 7.7 143.5
17 Deebo Samuel SF 9 40 222 5.6 2.9 93 58 768 13.1 4.1 141.0
18 Christian Watson GB 6 2 15 6.3 0.2 132 72 991 13.7 5.9 137.2
19 DJ Moore CHI 13 6 25 4.4 0.2 125 72 942 13.1 5.9 133.3
20 Amari Cooper CLE 5 0 0 -- 0.0 122 77 953 12.5 6.0 131.3
21 Terry McLaurin WAS 14 4 15 3.8 0.1 127 72 963 13.4 5.3 130.2
22 Drake London ATL 11 2 5 3.1 0.0 124 76 939 12.4 5.6 128.0
23 Keenan Allen LAC 5 0 0 -- 0.0 113 76 852 11.2 6.7 125.4
24 Brandon Aiyuk SF 9 3 16 5.3 0.1 106 64 923 14.5 5.1 125.1
25 Mike Williams LAC 5 0 0 -- 0.0 111 69 886 12.8 6.0 124.6
26 Tyler Lockett SEA 5 1 4 4.6 0.0 106 63 873 13.8 5.8 122.5
27 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 11 1 8 7.0 0.0 112 64 887 13.9 5.2 120.7
28 Gabe Davis BUF 13 3 17 5.5 0.1 104 60 803 13.5 6.2 119.8
29 George Pickens PIT 6 5 30 5.8 0.2 117 64 891 13.9 4.4 119.6
30 Mike Evans TB 5 0 0 -- 0.0 117 66 882 13.5 5.2 119.4
31 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 7 0 0 -- 0.0 121 75 863 11.4 5.5 119.3
32 Jerry Jeudy DEN 9 1 6 6.8 0.0 104 66 890 13.4 4.8 118.4
33 Chris Godwin TB 5 2 9 4.1 0.1 128 79 905 11.5 4.3 117.7
34 Christian Kirk JAC 9 5 24 5.0 0.2 108 71 805 11.3 5.4 116.4
35 Marquise Brown ARI 14 0 0 -- 0.0 115 71 857 12.1 4.3 111.5
36 Diontae Johnson PIT 6 6 26 4.6 0.2 126 81 835 10.3 3.6 108.8
37 Jordan Addison MIN 13 1 5 3.9 0.0 109 66 798 12.0 4.7 108.5
38 Treylon Burks TEN 7 7 40 5.5 0.2 104 58 783 13.5 4.1 108.1
39 Elijah Moore CLE 5 5 16 3.5 0.1 96 57 764 13.3 4.5 105.6
40 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 5 4 29 6.6 0.3 87 52 681 13.1 4.6 100.4
41 Quentin Johnston LAC 5 4 21 4.8 0.1 101 61 746 12.2 3.8 100.0
42 Courtland Sutton DEN 9 2 18 7.6 0.0 92 58 722 12.4 4.3 99.8
43 Allen Lazard NYJ 7 1 6 4.4 0.0 99 54 718 13.3 4.5 99.4
43 Jahan Dotson WAS 14 2 8 4.4 0.1 101 62 721 11.6 4.3 99.4
45 Brandin Cooks DAL 7 3 10 3.5 0.2 91 56 668 12.0 4.6 96.6
46 Rashod Bateman BAL 13 2 11 6.6 0.1 82 52 673 13.0 4.6 96.5
47 Kadarius Toney KC 10 7 46 6.6 0.4 81 54 641 11.9 4.2 96.3
48 Van Jefferson LAR 10 2 7 3.3 0.0 88 52 662 12.7 4.2 92.1
49 Michael Thomas NO 11 0 0 -- 0.0 86 53 652 12.4 4.3 91.0
50 Romeo Doubs GB 6 3 13 3.8 0.1 90 54 645 12.0 3.9 89.8

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Fantasy Football WR Projections 2023

Our fantasy football WR projections page includes stat projections for over 100 wide receivers and at least three, and often more, from each team. If you want a more detailed look at how we project the wide receiver position for 2023, this is the page for you. In addition to receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns, you can see how many targets we project, the yards per catch, and the rushing stats for each WR. 

These 2023 fantasy football WR projections are the result of a lot of things. For one, we built team projections, using sports betting information such as the preseason over/under win totals for each team, as well as the passing and rushing stats from the previous year. You can see a fuller explanation here.

From there, we also had to divide up the team stats among players, using things like how similar players had done in the past, how the team had distributed touches in the past, and projected depth charts. 

Why are the Fantasy Football WR projections so bunched up?

You may see our fantasy football WR projections and think they are too low. 

But in projecting individual wide receiver numbers, our projections are going to be more conservative. The stats at the WR position can be volatile. Some players will have better than average years. Others will have injuries, their quarterback will get hurt, or the offensive situation will be different than anticipated. 

So while we know that several wide receivers will finish with more than 1,000 yards receiving (especially with a 17th game), identifying the specific ones that will stay healthy, and be in the right team situation, or which will benefit statistically when another teammate misses games, is a harder task. Our predictions are here to provide an average outlook for that player entering the season.

2023 Fantasy Football WR Projections Highlights

  • Our projections are a bit higher on some second-year receivers than the market consensus, and this is based on our similar player analysis. Receivers that perform reasonably well as rookies are strong breakout candidates, and we see solid projections on several of them,
  • One of the most prominent is George Pickens, who is entering his second year with Pittsburgh. As a rookie, he averaged 9.5 yards per target in an offense that averaged 6.7 yards per attempt overall, and vastly outperformed fellow starter Diontae Johnson in rate stats.
  • We can be well under market on some veteran big name receivers where the public is planning on a bounce back. But our projections include how similar players have done in the past. Some big names that are a little lower in our projections include Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, and Adam Thielen.