2022 Fantasy Football Projection Changes

Our running list of changes to our fantasy football projections as we head toward the 2022 NFL season.

August 18, 2022 - by Jason Lisk

We released our initial 2021 fantasy football projections and rankings on May 12th. As we get closer to the season, though, information can change. Players get injured, traded, or released. Depth charts become clearer. So this post serves as a running change log of where we have made adjustments to the initial projections. We’ll list items in reverse chronological order, starting with the most recent.

2022 Fantasy Football Projection Changes

Mike Gesicki Rumors (8/25)

We’ve lowered Mike Gesicki’s production downward based on recent events. Gesicki played well into the second half, with the backups, in the last preseason game, and when asked about it said “I played receiver last year, I’ve played receiver the past three or four years. I’m playing tight end now and any reps I can get live, out there blocking, putting my hands on another guy and going out there, working hard and blocking.”

Given that he is with a new coaching staff and the team added Tyreek Hill at WR, that additional note about how Gesicki might be used more as a blocker is a cause for concern for his target share.

And then, when asked about trade rumors, head coach Mike McDaniels said “I mean, the report is kind of misleading because there are probably just gonna be a lot of names on that report.” That’s what is called a non-denial and attempt to deflect.

Given the smoke here, we are lowering Gesicki’s expectation with a new coaching staff.

Brian Robinson Starting for Washington (8/21)

Antonio Gibson’s fall from grace continues in Washington. Gibson, who had over 2,300 yards from scrimmage in his first two seasons, has fallen out of favor with the Washington coaching staff. He was returning kicks to start the game, while rookie fourth round pick Brian Robinson started and played with the other starters. At this point, we are now projecting Robinson to lead the team in rushing attempts and rushing touchdowns, while Gibson is still projected to have value as both a runner and receiver.

Gibson now falls to RB30 and Robinson up to RB32 in PPR scoring, while Robinson is slightly ahead in standard scoring.

Kenyan Drake Reportedly Will Be Cut by Raiders (8/21)

With the reports that Kenyan Drake is going to be cut, we’ve removed him from the Raiders’ projected backfield and Ameer Abdullah is now projected as the third running back and likely pass game recipient in Las Vegas.

Tyquan Thornton Injury (8/21)

New England Patriots rookie WR Tyquan Thornton suffered a broken collarbone and is expected to be out about eight weeks. As a result, we’ve downgraded his production to account for the missed time and distributed it among the other receivers.

Browns Adjustments with Confirmation of Deshaun Watson Suspension Settlement (8/18)

With the official word that Deshaun Watson and the NFL have settled on an 11-game suspension, we’ve updated our Browns projection to account for that, both in terms of the overall stat projections for the team and there breakdown of passing volume among quarterbacks.

Here are where the fantasy-relevant players rank in PPR point formats at their position:

• Jacoby Brissett – QB31
• Deshaun Watson – QB33
• Nick Chubb – RB13
• Kareem Hunt – RB36
• Amari Cooper – WR32
• Donovan Peoples-Jones – WR74
• David Njoku – TE23

Zach Wilson Injury Adjustment (8/15)

Zach Wilson went down with a knee injury in his first preseason game, and had to have surgery for a meniscus tear. He could miss up to a month, and though he could be back by Week 1, we are downgrading his usage slightly to account for the possibility of missing the start of the season.

Running Back Market Adjustments and Depth Chart Moves (8/15)

Based on depth chart news, first preseason game usage, and average draft position market movement, here are some shifts in the RB rankings and projections (all rank changes are referring to PPR):

• Washington: Antonio Gibson down to RB24, rookie Brian Robinson up in usage and at RB45, J.D. McKissic down slightly to RB47.
• Kansas City: Rookie Isaih Pacheco up to RB62 with early depth chart and line movement, Ronald Jones down to RB67, Jerick McKinnon down to RB82.
• Seattle: Rashaad Penny up to RB34 and Kenneth Walker down to RB36 based on market movement with Penny going before Walker in average draft position.
• New England: Damien Harris down to RB28, Rhamondre Stevenson at RB29, and Ty Montgomery into the rankings after James White retirement, based on news out of camp that he is most likely to fill the White receiving role. Montgomery enters at RB60.
• Miami: Raheem Mostert up to RB54, Sony Michel up to RB77, and Myles Gaskin down to RB98.

Wide Receiver Market Adjustments and Depth Chart Moves (8/15)

Based on depth chart news, first preseason game usage, and average draft position market movement, here are some shifts in the RB rankings and projections (all rank changes are referring to PPR):

• Miami: Jaylen Waddle reduced slightly, to WR13.
• Denver: Flipping Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy slightly as market is reflecting a preference for Sutton. Sutton is now WR21 and Jeudy is WR27.
• LA Rams: Based on preseason injury for Jefferson and the market ranks, shifted some production and Allen Robinson now WR25 and Jefferson WR66.
• Baltimore: With injuries to the other receivers on the roster, and Rashod Bateman’s clear ADP advantage, shifted production so he is now WR27.
• NY Giants: Based on market data, camp news, and depth charts, shifted production from Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, to Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, and Wan’Dale Robinson. Toney is now WR37, Golladay is WR52, and Robinson is WR76.
• Pittsburgh: Move WR George Pickens up, now WR78, at small adjustments downward for Diontae Johnson (WR26) and Chase Claypool (WR56).
• Tennessee: Treylon Burks down to WR52 with being buried on the depth chart and generally negative news all summer, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine up to WR77.

 

David Montgomery Adjustment (8/4)

We’ve downgraded Montgomery slightly, both to move toward the market and account for the news and risk with a new coaching staff. This Athletic story talks about Montgomery getting some working on special teams which could be an indication that he is not seen by the new staff as a workhorse back, as most teams don’t use a back they are going to give a majority of carries as a special teams contributor. Montgomery’s value is based on the volume of touches, his past role, and projected similar players, but those factors are a little less certain on a team with new coaching.

As a result, Montgomery is now RB22 (from RB15( and second-year RB Khalil Herbert is up to RB44 (from RB56) and a backup to consider in drafts.

Tim Patrick Knee Injury (8/2)

Denver WR Tim Patrick, who was second on the team in receiving yards and led in touchdowns a year ago, suffered a season-ending knee injury in camp today. Patrick was a solid veteran who would have provided target competition for Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.

With Patrick out for the year, third-year WR K.J. Hamler is now the presumptive third wide receiver in Denver. Hamler missed most of last season with an injury, so there’s a little uncertainty on how he will do with an expanded role. This loss also solidifies the target roles for Sutton and Jeudy along with TE Albert Okwuegbunam, who sees a slight uptick in expected points. It also makes rookie TE Greg Dulcich. who was drafted in the third round and had over 700 receiving yards at UCLA last year, an intriguing option at TE28 in our rankings. It’s certainly possible that Denver goes to more two-TE sets without Patrick and uses Dulcich to stretch the middle of the field.

Green Bay Wide Receiver Depth Chart (8/2)

With rookie Christian Watson’s June knee surgery still keeping him out of camp, and fellow rookie Romeo Doubs off to a good start, the Green Bay depth chart is wide open and completely ambiguous. We’ve reduced the projection on second-round pick Watson and now Watson, Doubs, and veterans Sammy Watkins and Randall Cobb all rank between WR72 and WR101. While none of them are clear roster calls in redrafts right now, you are probably going to want whoever is named the starter catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, and this situation is fluid and subject to actual depth chart news as we get closer to the regular season.

James Washington Injury (8/2)

Dallas WR James Washington suffered a foot injury and will likely miss 6-10 weeks. That could mean that he misses up to a month of the regular season. Add in WR Michael Gallup returning from a December knee injury and likely not being ready for the start of the season, and that leaves Dallas pretty thin at receiver early in the year. We’ve adjusted the projections to account for that injury.

With the lack of depth at WR, CeeDee Lamb moves up to WR6 overall with the opportunity for a bigger target share, rookie WR Jalen Tolbert moves to WR55, and Washington drops out of the top 100 at the position.

Jamison Crowder and Isaiah McKenzie Uncertainty (8/2)

With reports that Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder are competing for the slot role with Buffalo this year, and Crowder having an early injury that opened the door for McKenzie, we’ve closed the gap in our projection of the two.

They are both down at WR83 and WR89 for now, but the eventual winner of this battle should rise to a borderline draft able range in redraft leagues.

Cleveland Adjustment after DeShaun Watson Suspension News (8/2)

The projections have been updated to project Watson for about 60% of the passing in 2022, assuming a six-game suspension, and the overall team projection in passing has been changed to reflect that increase in volume for Watson relative to Jacoby Brissett. Players like WR Amari Cooper have also seen their value rise back up following this adjustment, returning to WR21 in our rankings.

Tampa Bay Moves  (8/2)

The projections have been updated to account for the signing of WR Julio Jones and TE Kyle Rudolph in Tampa Bay, as well as positive news on WR Chris Godwin avoiding starting camp on the PUP.

• Godwin is now at WR25 in overall points projection, and worthy of going higher than that in deep leagues, those where you can stash him early while he works back from injury, or best ball formats.
• WR Russell Gage falls down to WR55 with the improved outlook for Godwin and increased target competition with the other signings.
• WR Julio Jones slots in at WR76, as he still saw a significant decline the last two years, and will be 33 years old, and still looks like the 4th option at WR when Godwin is fully back.
• TE Kyle Rudolph checks in at TE37, and Cameron Brate also falls to TE33, with uncertainty about which will see more targets.

Seattle QB Depth Chart Switch (8/2)

Based on early reports that Geno Smith is ahead of Drew Lock in Seattle, we’ve swapped Smith into getting the majority of pass attempts. However, you likely don’t want either of these guys on your roster, as they are currently B32 and QB35 in projected points.

Houston WR John Metchie Likely Out for Year (8/2)

With the news that WR John Metchie is being treated for cancer, he has been removed from the projections and we wish him a speedy recovery. His absence in Houston solidifies second-year WR Nico Collins as the starter opposite Brandin Cooks, and Collins moves into draft range in 12-team leagues, at WR60.

Alvin Kamara Downgrade (7/5)

Alvin Kamara has been downgraded because of the continued risk of a suspension, with reporting that he could get a suspension of six games as he faces felony battery charges and has another hearing in August. We are still not projecting the full suspension as certain, but have dropped him down to account for the risk.

Running Back Market Adjustments (7/5)

Based on settling in and movement of the running back market in fantasy football drafts so far on NFFC and on best ball sites like Underdog, we’ve made the following adjustments:

Risers

• Saquon Barkley
• Cam Akers
• James Conner
• Travis Etienne
• J.K. Dobbins
• James Cook

Fallers

• Josh Jacobs
• Antonio Gibson
• Damien Harris
• James Robinson

Cleveland Passing Projection Decrease (6/20)

With continued negative news on Deshaun Watson and reports that the NFL will seek a lengthy suspension, the Cleveland team projection, as well as the QB stat distribution, have been altered. The overall pass and run volume numbers are similar, but the efficiency in passing has been reduced, as well as the total touchdown passes.

Originally, we were projecting Watson for missing about six games, but we’ve now flipped that and have Jacoby Brissett projected as the starter for roughly 75% of the passing stats, with some chance that Watson still plays.

Brissett is now QB29 in our projections. The running backs mostly stay the same, but the biggest impact in rankings was on Amari Cooper. While his projection only dropped by about 12 points in non-PPR, that was enough to move him from WR21 toward the top of a tier, to WR32, at the bottom of it. The other wide receivers (Donovan People-Jones and David Bell) also saw a slight drop in rankings based on the increased risk that Watson doesn’t play (or barely plays).

RB Jerick McKinnon Re-Signs with the Chiefs (6/20)

Jerick McKinnon officially re-signed with Kansas City, joining a crowded backfield with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, and others. He enters our rankings as the third running back in the Chiefs offense, but takes away some receiving production from both Ronald Jones (who has low numbers to begin with) and Edwards-Helaire compared to other backs in Kansas City. McKinnon enters the rankings as RB64 in standard and RB62 in PPR.

RB Antonio Gibson Market Adjustment (5/26)

We’ve adjusted the projection for Antonio Gibson downward a bit to move toward some market adjustments post-NFL Draft. Market data and average draft position is one of the factors (along with comparable player performance, team role and usage trends, and overall team projection) we use to develop our projections for players. Since Washington drafted Brian Robinson with the 98th overall pick, and based on some early comments about a “running back committee” coming out of Washington, Gibson’s draft position has been dropping a bit. (It’s really low at Underdog Fantasy, where he has an ADP of 59.9 overall, but that is extremely off market even compared to other movement, where he is in the late 30’s now in ADP).

Gibson was RB11 in our initial PPR Rankings, but with our adjustment, he is now RB16 and 31st overall in our PPR Rankings. J.D. McKissic moves from RB45 to RB43 in PPR Rankings, while Brian Robinson goes from RB68 to RB62.

That still leaves us above market on Gibson, but reduces some of the distance between our rankings and where the market has moved. Why do we still want to be above market? It’s not like we had a projection on Gibson that was treating him as a feature back like Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor, as he was projected for less than 50% of Washington rush attempts and yards already, and McKissic was projected for more receptions. Gibson has good comparables given his age and production, compared to both a 29-year-old receiving back in McKissic who missed some time last year, and a rookie taken 98th overall. We are fine taking some risk here of the time share because there is also upside that his receiving role increases as McKissic ages and/or he takes on more of that role if Robinson is being used in short yardage, or Robinson isn’t as effective as May hopes would lead you to believe (rookie backups can often be overvalued at this time of the year, compared to the average performance they provide).

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WR Bryan Edwards Traded from Las Vegas to Atlanta (5/18)

With the acquisition of Davante Adams, third-year wide receiver Bryan Edwards became a little more expendable. Atlanta, a team with major wide receiver question marks in the wake of Calvin Ridley’s indefinite suspension, traded for him. This move caused a slight shift of some receiving numbers in Las Vegas. Meanwhile, Edwards moves in to our WR2 projection for Atlanta, behind rookie Drake London (8th overall pick) but ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus and Auden Tate.

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WR Jarvis Landry Signs with New Orleans (5/18)

Jarvis Landry finally signed with a team, as he will join the Saints. With Michael Thomas expected to return after missing all of last year, the team drafting Chris Olave in the first round, and now Landry, the Saints have re-hauled their receiving corp for a group that really struggled a year ago. Michael Thomas has missed most of the last two seasons, and Landry saw his receptions fall off to a career-low 52 last year (and missed four games) and will be 30 years old. With the addition of Landry, the overall team projection for the Saints’ passing went up slightly (both attempts and yards per play), while Thomas, Olave, and tight ends Adam Trautman and Nick Vannett saw slight downgrades in their shares of the passing game.

Landry slots in as WR3, Marquez Callaway dropped to WR4, and Tre’Quan Smith drops out of our projected rotation for now. Landry enters our PPR Rankings at WR71 because of his role as the third receiver and concerns about the Saints’ passing volume, but with upside to improve if Michael Thomas is not healthy again entering the season.

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