4 Quarterback Sleepers to Target

Finding a good QB late in the draft can make your team dangerous. Here are some targets we like once you get past the Top 12 at the position.

August 17, 2020 - by Jason Lisk

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 08: Jared Goff #16 of the Ramsduring the Los Angeles Rams NFC West game versus the Seattle Seahawks on December 8, 2019, at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Kevin Reece/Icon Sportswire)

It’s often profitable in fantasy football to wait at quarterback and find the undervalued player who has a big season. Over the last five seasons, on average, the quarterback that won league MVP was drafted as the QB12 (that is, as the 12th quarterback taken). Here are some guys that are going outside the Top 12 this year that present upside as quarterback sleepers.

Daniel Jones

The fantasy market is abuzz over a second-year quarterback, expecting him to be the next breakout candidate after we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson surge to MVP awards in their second seasons recently. That’s why Kyler Murray is going as the 4th quarterback taken on average.

But do they have the wrong one? From a value standpoint, you can make a pretty good argument that Daniel Jones of the Giants is the young guy you should target as one of your quarterback sleepers.

Here’s something to consider: Jones averaged more fantasy points per game than Murray last year. Murray beat him in rushing yards, though Jones is no slouch there. Jones, meanwhile, averaged more yards per game passing, and had more touchdown passes even though he started four fewer games.

Last year, the Giants lost a lot of games to injury among the offensive starters. Running back Saquon Barkley missed three games and was playing hurt for a significant part of the season. At receiver, Sterling Shepard missed six games, Golden Tate missed five, and tight end Evan Engram missed eight games. That’s a lot of missed time for key skill players on this offensive unit, coupled with Jones moving into the lineup as a rookie starter.

Here are some recent second-year quarterbacks who threw for 26+ TDs that show up on Jones’ similar players: Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, and Jameis Winston. That group averaged the 9th most fantasy points at QB in year two. (You’ve probably wiped out of your memory that Blake Bortles threw 35 touchdown passes in 2015.)

You can currently get Jones at about the QB15 or QB16 range, and he’s in a short-term situation where his team may be in a lot of shootouts. He could provide fantasy value in 2020, both as a runner and passer.

Jared Goff

After nearly two years of elite offense with the Rams under Sean McVay, 2019 was a step back for Goff. In fantasy football terms, he made up for it in passing volume, but wasn’t as efficient. Still, Goff has finished 12th, 7th, and 13th in fantasy points at QB the last three years. So why is the 26-year-old QB going as a lower end QB2 in fantasy this year?

Last year, Goff threw only 22 touchdown passes on over 600 attempts, for a touchdown rate that was nearly half what he had done the previous two years. It’s pretty rare for a QB to throw for as many yards as Goff did, and have so few touchdowns. In fact, here is every quarterback since 2000 to throw for over 4,500 yards but finish below the league average in pass TD rate. (next year’s pass TDs and fantasy ranking in parentheses).

Matthew Stafford, 2012 (29 pass TD, QB7)
Matt Ryan, 2015 (38 pass TD, QB2)
Matt Ryan, 2013 (28 pass TD, QB7)
Kirk Cousins, 2016 (27 pass TD, QB6)

Our team models project something similar. The Rams are expected to finish as one of the top passing offenses in volume, and the pass touchdown rate is expected to improve from last year’s low output. So while the public narrative is down on Goff, he’s now a good buy-low candidate in fantasy football.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo is another veteran that is going for relatively cheap in fantasy football, with a current average draft position of QB20. Garoppolo has a couple of things going for him in terms of holding his value. One is his low passing volume in 2019. San Francisco had a stout defense, went 13-3, and as a result he only threw 476 passes. The other is that people’s last impression of Garoppolo was him failing to close out the Super Bowl and leaving some late opportunities.

But we aren’t about narratives, we are about data and analysis. Garoppolo has averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, and thrown a touchdown on 5.3% of his passes. The 49ers will likely increase their pass attempt totals, because even if they are expected to be near the top of the NFL again, they probably won’t be as run-heavy. Garoppolo is still relatively early in his career, in terms of starts, due to injuries and being Brady’s backup. There’s upside here that the 2019 pass volume doesn’t represent his ceiling. And he was the QB14 last year.

An uptick in passing volume, with similar efficiency, makes Garoppolo a starting fantasy option at quarterback.

Joe Burrow

We’ve seen quarterbacks taken first overall come in and make an early impact in recent years. Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton have all put up fantasy starting QB numbers (or close to it) on a per-game basis as rookies. Burrow comes in as an older and more pass-ready quarterback selection, and was extremely accurate in his last year at LSU. He can also make plays with his feet and will provide some rushing value to go with his passing.

Finally, he moves into a relatively good situation as far as first overall picks go. The team is moving to the second year with head coach Zac Taylor. The offensive weapons could be pretty good. If A.J. Green can come back healthy, the receiving corps will be Green, Tyler Boyd, rookie second round pick Tee Higgins, and John Ross. Joe Mixon is a quality running back. Last year’s first round pick, OT Jonah Williams, missed the entire season due to injury, and should solidify a weak point on the team.

Burrow has some weapons to immediately hit the ground running and be a quarterback sleeper in Fantasy Football.