5 Tight End Sleepers to Target

The tight end position has had some big breakouts in recent seasons, like George Kittle and Mark Andrews. Who could be next?

August 16, 2020 - by Jason Lisk

T.J. Hockenson is entering his second year in the NFL and could be poised for a big season (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)

Some tight end sleepers, taken late in drafts, hit almost every year. Last year, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller were two guys going outside the Top 12 at the position who exploded with big seasons. Two years ago, it was George Kittle. Who will it be in 2020? Based on profile and opportunity, here are the guys we like as potential big value plays if you want to wait at the tight end position.

T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson is at the top of the list for tight end targets, and you may need to go higher than his average draft position, where he is going in the 10th or 11th round on average.

Ten tight ends over the last 20 years have had a huge breakout season in their second year in the NFL. (We’ll define that as scoring more than 180 points in PPR formats). That includes many of the biggest names at the position over that period: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, and George Kittle.

Those tight ends averaged 79 catches, 1019 yards, and 8.7 touchdowns during their breakout second seasons. As rookies, they averaged 31 catches, 379 yards, and 3.6 touchdowns. Almost all of them were drafted in the first three rounds, with Gates being the big exception. Hockenson, who was the 10th overall pick in last year’s NFL draft, had 32 catches, 367 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

He’s right in line with past breakouts, which is why his similar player projections have us projecting him higher than his current ADP. Last year, Matthew Stafford missed half the season, and Detroit’s passing game suffered, creating an even bigger barrier for a rookie tight end. Detroit is projected to have the 7th-most passing yards in 2020. Hockenson could easily carve out a role as the second option in the offense behind Kenny Golladay and produce big-time stats at tight end. He’s going behind a whole host of guys who have less upside and also carry some risk. Hockenson should be a key part of draft strategy if you are waiting at tight end.

Mike Gesicki

Gesicki had a mini-breakout in year two last season, and finished inside the top 12 at the position. He finished with 51 catches, 570 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He closed out the last five games of the year by averaging 4 catches and 50 yards a game, and scoring 4 of his 5 touchdowns. Despite that, you can draft him outside the top 12 this season.

Whether it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa at the quarterback position, Gesicki should continue to be a big part of this offense and has the potential to put up a top 6 season in 2020 with Miami. His share of targets also likely went up with the news that both Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson were opting out for the 2020 season, as Miami’s depth will be reduced at the receiver position.

Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert finished 10th in TE fantasy scoring a year ago. And that’s despite missing a game, and playing with Zach Ertz (who also played 15 games). Ertz was injured at the end of last season, and in the final regular season (with Ertz out) and the playoff game (with Ertz limited), Goedert had 18 targets, 11 catches, and 135 yards. That shows his upside if Ertz, who turned 30, is injured or declines in 2020.

So while the fantasy market is seeming to shy away from Goedert because of the Ertz factor, we see an opportunity. He’s already shown he can be a factor even as the second tight end to Ertz. He is entering his prime at age 25. Ertz is turning 30. Maybe this is a year early for the Goedert explosion, but it could be coming. And if Ertz has more injuries, Goedert becomes a Top 3 tight end right away.

Irv Smith, Jr.

Much of what we said about Hockenson could apply to Irv Smith. He had 36 catches, 311 yards, and 2 touchdowns as a rookie, playing in a platoon situation with Kyle Rudolph. His similar players, because of age and the year two breakout factor, include some elite breakouts, and we project him as a potential fantasy starter.

Right now, Smith is going outside the Top 200 in drafts, perhaps meaning he isn’t even drafted in some leagues. Kyle Rudolph’s presence is no doubt a factor. But Smith basically put up the same stats as Rudolph as a rookie (except for touchdowns). Rudolph is now 31 years old, and Smith was drafted as his heir apparent.

There’s an opportunity in this offense. Stefon Diggs has moved to Buffalo. Outside of Adam Thielen, the other most likely targets are rookie Justin Jefferson, Smith, and Rudolph. Maybe this is a year early on Smith, but you’d rather be early than late when trying to identify booms at the position. Smith comes very cheaply and has the potential to surprise in this offense in his second season.

Jack Doyle

Finally, we’ll close with a veteran pick. Jack Doyle is available near the end of drafts (about the 13th round) and provides as much upside as veteran tight ends going several rounds earlier.

Eric Ebron is gone, so no more time share there. Trey Burton is in, but he was a disappointment in Chicago and is more properly cast as a second tight end in an offense. Doyle should be the main guy again in Indianapolis. Here’s what the Colts’ top tight end has averaged over the last five years:

60 catches, 593 yards, 5.8 touchdowns

That kind of production would easily put Doyle inside the Top 8 this year. We also know that Philip Rivers likes to use the tight end position as well. Hunter Henry, and before him Antonio Gates, have often been top scorers at the position. We don’t know exactly where the production will come from in an unsettled Colts’ receiving group. Taking a chance late in a draft that Doyle has a little bigger role than he has the previous two years seems worth the risk.

If you really want to wait at tight end, you could go with a veteran/young guy pair of Doyle and Smith, Jr. for cheap, have some diversity with your picks, and also have upside to hit on a sleeper.