Fantasy Football IQ (#1): Zero RB Strategy, QB Bust Rates, Austin Ekeler’s Value
Can you win by not drafting a RB early? Is Kyler Murray worth the price? Here's some of our favorite fantasy football analysis from around the web.
August 7, 2020 - by Jason Lisk
Austin Ekeler can go from elite Zero RB choice in 2019 to a 1st round pick in 2020 (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
Welcome to our first edition of Fantasy Football IQ, a roundup of fantasy football analysis from around the web that we find interesting and insightful.
High IQ Fantasy Football Articles: August 5th, 2020 Edition
As we move into August and with players having reported to team facilities, here’s some fantasy research that recently caught our eye:
- Establish The Run: Zero RB strategy, and looking at some profiles for who to target later in drafts
- FantasyPros: QB weekly boom and bust rates from 2019
- 4for4: Notable usage rate stats and splits from 2019, and what they could mean for 2020
- Footballguys: Austin Ekeler and why he looks like a good RB1 value in 2020
Note: Many of the sites publishing the highest quality fantasy football research are, unsurprisingly, premium sites. So you may need to purchase a subscription to read the full articles mentioned below. We’ll tell you why we think the analysis is valuable, and you can make that decision for yourself.
The Zero RB Primer (Establish The Run)
Pat Kerrane at Establish The Run did a series of articles this summer on Zero Running Back Strategy, including a “Zero RB Primer” explaining the concept and strategy, as well as factors for identifying later-round running back draft picks with upside.
For those unfamiliar, the Zero RB strategy involves zagging when most others zig, gathering value at positions like wide receiver while taking running backs later in the draft. Here’s an excerpt from the second article:
“One method for applying this knowledge to the upcoming season is to dig a bit deeper on RB projections. Since fantasy projections won’t show us directly if RBs hit our green zone threshold (20 carries), and because we also don’t want to do a ton of mental math, we can simplify things by looking at projected rushing TDs and receptions. We’ll do this by using what I’ll call the 745 rule. With the 745 rule, we’re targeting RBs projected for a minimum of 7 rushing TDs and/or 45 receptions … For mid round RBs, we’d like to see projections come in above at least one of these thresholds. But these projection thresholds aren’t gospel. We still want to examine each RB’s range of outcomes, not just rely on their projected output. Therefore as the draft moves out of the range of premium WRs, we can start settling for RBs projected below a 745 profile who have a path to a 745 type workload without an injury.”
Our Take: We are always a fan of contrarian strategies that employ an analytical bent. The Zero RB strategy isn’t for everyone, but depending on your scoring system, draft slot, and how other owners draft, it may be a good one to employ. The strategy acknowledges the uncertainty of of projecting running backs and injuries, and seeks to exploit that uncertainty.
Read the initial post in the Zero RB Primer series on Establish The Run.
Booms and Busts at QB (FantasyPros)
Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros recently put the quarterbacks under a microscope. Using 2019 stats, he looks at the rate at which each quarterback was a boom, finished as a QB1 (top 12 scorer), or was a bust on a weekly basis. Here’s a comment on Kyler Murray:
“His upside certainly carries some weight, but not enough to justify ranking him as a top-four quarterback (where he’s currently being drafted). The idea of drafting a quarterback high is knowing the stability he brings to your lineup. You don’t get guaranteed stability with Murray. You get sky-high potential, sure, but based on what we know about quarterbacks, you shouldn’t have to spend a pick in the top five rounds to “hope” for that upside. The difference between Murray and the other quarterbacks on this list? They’ve already proven to be top-two options at some point in their career.”
Our Take: While player performance can change year-to-year, this post offered an excellent way to view the volatility in weekly performance at the QB position and how performances drop as you move down the rankings. Our PPR QB projections are also lower on Murray, based on our similar team and player models. After two seasons in which a second-year QB broke out to win league MVP (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson), Murray is coming at a very high cost as a top-four draft pick, and justifying that cost assumes a big breakout. Longer term fantasy history hasn’t been so consistently upward for highly drafted quarterbacks.
Read the full QB boom or bust article on FantasyPros.
99 Stats But a Mitch Ain’t One (4for4)
John Paulson of 4for4 wrote about a series of observations from their (potentially released soon for public consumption) Market Share App, including this one on Robert Woods.
“In PPR formats, Woods finished No. 14 last year and No. 10 the year before. Brandin Cooks is gone, so naturally…what? Woods is the 18th receiver off the board? Huh? He has scored the eighth-most fantasy points at his position over the last two seasons despite catching only eight touchdowns, so he could easily crack the top 10 in 2020 with a bit of positive touchdown regression. Since I believe he holds third-round value, he has become an auto-pick in the fifth. I’d happily take him in the fourth round if Allen Robinson and A.J. Brown are off the board.”
Our Take: Paulson goes in-depth here with lots of players and observations (99 to be exact!) and there are a ton of great nuggets of wisdom in terms of 2020 draft advice. For comparison, as of August 6, Woods is 13th in our PPR WR projections for 2020, and we expect the Rams to have some positive pass TD regression this year and finish among our top five passing offenses by volume. So we also see Woods as one of those under-the-radar guys you can likely grab for good value.
Read all 99 stat-based observations on 4for4.
Why Austin Ekeler Is A RB1 Bargain (Footballguys)
Justin Howe of Footballguys lays out a compelling case for why Austin Ekeler is a RB1 bargain.
“Ekeler has shown to be a serviceable, if unspectacular, runner between the tackles, but what sets him apart is his pass-game prowess. Over his 3 NFL seasons, Ekeler has led all running backs with a studly 8.6 yards per target, and he’s caught 14 touchdowns over 43 games … And behind Ekeler, there’s virtually no proven track record to speak of. Jackson has shown some dynamism in his limited, injury-riddled opportunities, and the team added Joshua Kelley in the fourth round of the draft. But neither looks like an Ekeler-type talent, and neither projects to cut much into Ekeler’s dominant pass-game role. He’ll cede a typical amount of time to his reserves but still boasts a worst-case floor around 250-260 touches.”
Our Take: We also have Ekeler as a solid RB1 choice, particularly in our RB rankings for PPR scoring. Ekeler had one of the best receiving seasons of all-time last year (993 yards). Even though the Chargers are transitioning on offense and may not pass as much in 2020, he still should be the main man and he is capable of taking on a bigger share of rushing as well. In the four games last year before Melvin Gordon ended his holdout in 2019, Ekeler totaled 490 yards from scrimmage and 6 touchdowns.