Fantasy Football IQ (#3): Tight End Targets, a Full NFL Fantasy Primer, and Auction Advice
Today's Fantasy Football IQ focuses on some keys to identifying TE targets, a comprehensive look at every team, and some auction strategy.
August 14, 2020 - by Jason Lisk
Will Noah Fant carve out a big role in Denver? (Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
Fantasy Football IQ is our series showcasing fantasy football analysis from around the web that we find interesting and insightful.
High IQ Fantasy Football Articles: August 14th, 2020 Edition
Hard Knocks have now hit us, so here’s some fantasy football research to recover from the blow:
- Establish The Run: Profiling tight end targets
- FantasyPros: a full rundown of fantasy positions on every single team
- Footballguys: Common auction draft situations for 2020 and how to handle
Note: Many of the sites publishing the highest quality fantasy football research are, unsurprisingly, premium sites. So you may need to purchase a subscription to read the full articles mentioned below. We’ll tell you why we think the analysis is valuable, and you can make that decision for yourself.
TE Target Profiles (Establish the Run)
Pat Kerrane of Establish the Run dove into top tight end performances and how they profiled statistically, using stats like Yards per Route Run and Yards per Target.
This hints at a key finding to keep in mind when evaluating this position: efficiency matters at TE. This makes intuitive sense when you think about it. WRs, by the very nature of their position, are going to be a key part of any passing game-plan. But Offensive Coordinators and Play Callers have no inherent need to heavily involve their TE in the passing game. And TEs can’t soak up last-resort dump-off targets to the extent of RBs, either. Instead, the typical elite fantasy TE carves out a major role in his offense by being an unusually dynamic receiver for a man built like a Defensive End. That type of player is highly skilled… and rare.
Our Take: Kerrane’s analysis here on efficiency stats at the tight end position often leading to volume breakouts is interesting. We look forward to the follow-up article identifying some targets for 2020.
The Primer: Draft Day Edition (FantasyPros)
Mike Tagliere went really in-depth with his thoughts on every fantasy-relevant player on all 32 teams, from Arizona to Washington.
There are a lot of times where we go through a week of the NFL season and we look back thinking, “how could I have missed that breakout performance?” Was there something wrong with the process? A lot of times, it’s unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, but when it comes to season-long performances, we should’ve been able to see the potential for that situation.
I wanted to come up with something to hold myself accountable for those season-long situations. A place I can come back to and look at my mistakes. A place I can talk through my process. A place I can be honest with myself about potential situations and outcomes, even if it’s not what I believe will happen.
Our Take: A truly impressive amount of content and thought-provoking observations about a wide variety of players. Tagliere gives you the rationale about which guys he thinks can succeed as well as question marks at certain positions. It’s a long read but if you want to dig in and get info on pretty much everyone you might be considering on draft day, this one’s for you.
The Primer: Draft Day Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)
Solutions for 7 Common Auction Situations (Footballguys)
Jeff Pasquino of Footballguys wrote about some auction questions you may face in 2020, including how to handle the top tier of running backs.
As several of the Footballguys’ auction articles point out, when a tier starts to get eliminated, the value of the players left in that tier will increase – and so will the price. Either fantasy team owners are saving for those players to hit the bidding floor, or they are fearful of missing out on an elite option, or both. Regardless of the reason, if there are only one or two elite rushers left, expect a bidding war, and plan accordingly. The ideal scenario is to grab your elite rusher for your plan as early as possible.
Our Take: Auction drafts can go in a lot of different directions and are an interesting challenge. One thing that is almost always true, though, is that the players that come up earliest in a perceived tier at the position tend to go for less than the last player up for bid in the same tier. The principal of supply and demand applies in fantasy football as it does elsewhere. Knowing that, Pasquino walks you through some potential early bidding strategies to get the players you want.
Solution for 7 Common Auction Situations
Past Versions of Fantasy Football IQ
Fantasy Football IQ #1: Zero RB Strategy, QB Bust Rates, Austin Ekeler’s Value
Fantasy Football IQ #2: Winning Your League in the First Round, T.Y. Hilton’s Value, and Game Theory