Do Not Draft: 10 Overrated Players for Fantasy Football (2021)

We break down 10 players who look overrated in 2021 fantasy football drafts, including several players being drafted in the early rounds.

August 14, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

In fantasy football drafts, everything has a price. Whether you’re doing a snake or salary-cap draft, you have to determine where or how much to invest in every player.

Based on current average draft position (ADP) data for PPR formats, the following 10 players are going earlier than we have them projected in our 2021 rankings.

You might find differing opinions on these players elsewhere. Some may appear in lists of players to target. You can read our explanations below and judge for yourself which arguments make the most sense.

Overrated Players in 2021 Fantasy Football

1. WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

• Current PPR ADP: WR30
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR41

We were already well below-market on Thomas even before the news that he was likely to miss the start of the season after he underwent ankle surgery in June.

Thomas has more red flags than the stands at a NASCAR race. The Saints are making a major shift at quarterback after Drew Brees’ retirement, and we don’t know what their offense will look like. They might be even less pass-heavy than they have been, especially if Taysom Hill is getting snaps at QB.

Thomas’ production dropped precipitously last year while he battled the ankle injury. He also isn’t as young as you might think, as he turned 28 in March. The list of comparable players with such a big decline at a similar age includes Dez Bryant, who fell off a production cliff in his age-27 season.

Add in that he and the team are having a public feud over his late surgery, and this is a problem that you’d rather let someone else deal with.

2. WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
3. WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

• Current PPR ADP: WR31 (Smith) and WR43 (Waddle)
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR51 (Smith) and WR56 (Waddle)

Five different rookies had at least 800 receiving yards last year, and Justin Jefferson broke out with over 1,400 yards. Perhaps that optimism is playing a role here with Smith and Waddle.

However, Smith and Waddle are older for top-drafted rookies (they both turn 23 in November). There is a clear age component to past rookie receiver production, with younger receivers outperforming older ones. So there is already some concern there, and both enter somewhat clouded situations.

Smith will likely be the top receiver in Philadelphia, but second-year QB Jalen Hurts is taking over for Carson Wentz under center, and there’s a decent chance this is a run-heavy, low-passing-volume offense. Meanwhile, Waddle joins a crowded field of receivers in Miami, where Will Fuller V, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki have all been productive. The Dolphins are not likely to go pass-crazy, either.

There are other options with better safety and upside going in this ADP range.

4. RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

• Current PPR ADP: RB11
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB16

The Najee Harris train is at full speed ahead right now. But we have gone from being ahead of the market to not wanting to jump on said train.

Harris projects to be the workhorse in Pittsburgh, but the hype seems to be ignoring the downside risk. We have ADP data for rookies going back 15 years, and the only two rookies who were drafted outside the top 10 in the real NFL draft who went higher than Harris were Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ryan Mathews. Both mildly disappointed fantasy managers during their rookie seasons.

Plenty of rookies can provide excellent value, but the value isn’t there for Harris at his current early-second-round price. We would much rather take a top WR or a back like Joe Mixon, who is also the unquestioned bell cow in an offense. Even Edwards-Helaire, who has most of the same factors going for him that caused him to shoot up draft boards last year, is now coming at a fairer value.

5. RB Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

• Current PPR ADP: RB21
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB25

Heading into his age-28 season, Mike Davis will finally get his chance to be a team’s unquestioned starter.

After taking over for the injured Christian McCaffrey last year in Carolina, Davis posted his first-ever top-30 finish, but it was largely based volume rather than great efficiency. Although he played well in his first few starts, he averaged only 62 yards from scrimmage, 3.7 yards per carry, and 5.9 yards per catch in his final eight starts.

Davis will need full starter volume all year in Atlanta to justify his RB21 price. While he seems like the top back heading into the season, Atlanta’s backfield could devolve into a timeshare if he does not produce at a high level and provides replacement-level starter play.

You can find more established producers at running back in Davis’ ADP range. Let others take the risk that a 28-year-old can suddenly become more productive than his career efficiency averages suggest.

6. WR Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears

• Current PPR ADP: WR11
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR16

This isn’t so much an indictment of Robinson as it is concern over his offensive environment in 2021.

The Bears signed veteran Andy Dalton at quarterback this offseason, and they also drafted Justin Fields. Robinson is currently going off the board as the WR11, but Chicago might be a lower-volume passing game, especially if Fields takes over and makes more plays with his legs.

Robinson has been the unquestioned WR1 in Chicago for the past few seasons because the team didn’t have a reliable second option. They had no depth at running back last year, either.

This year, Darnell Mooney moves into the starting lineup, Cole Kmet enters his second year at tight end, and the Bears have more receiving depth in their backfield as well. While none of them will threaten Robinson’s status as the top guy, they could collectively eat away at his target share.

7. WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

• Current PPR ADP: WR10
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR21

McLaurin is going before after Robinson at wide receiver, and some of the same concerns apply to him.

The third-year receiver finished as the WR20 last year, but he’s now going at WR10. While Washington’s QB position should be more stable with the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, it still isn’t likely to be one of the best passing games in the league.

McLaurin was the only show in town last year at wideout, as a revolving cast of disappointments played opposite him. Washington added Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries and rookie Dyami Brown this offseason, giving them a few options who figure to draw targets away from McLaurin.

Even if McLaurin is more efficient and scores more touchdowns than the four he had last year, he still might not get to the level he needs to justify his current cost.

8. RB Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

• Current PPR ADP: RB18
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB21

As we noted in our Player Props article:

Here’s a list of backs who had over 900 rushing yards at both age 24 and 25, then dropped off by more than 20 yards per game at age 26, since 1990, as did Chris Carson last year:

• • Travis Henry
  • Tatum Bell
  • Julius Jones
  • Napoleon Kaufman
  • Errict Rhett

None of those backs approached 1,000 rushing yards at age 27.

Ray Rice also makes the list, but his career ended at that age for different reasons. Le’Veon Bell didn’t play at age 26 because of his holdout in Pittsburgh, and he then fell off after signing with the Jets. Ahmad Bradshaw, Lamar Miller, and Ryan Mathews also had similar production to Carson from ages 24 to 26.

Carson doesn’t have some of the traits that tend to age well at the position—namely, elite pass-catching ability—and he already showed some injury and production concerns last year.

Carson falls in the “running back dead zone,” where guys tend to go because they have some history of production or opportunity. He has been a value play in fantasy until last season, and Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll loves him.

But given his physical running style and decline last season, Carson fits the profile of a lot of other guys who disappointed as they moved into their later 20s. Let someone else pay the third-round price for him.

9. RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

• Current PPR ADP: RB40
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB58

David Johnson isn’t going particularly high in fantasy drafts, so the cost isn’t prohibitive. But you would be better served taking higher-upside plays in that range.

The Texans have the NFL’s lowest projected win total, and they added Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II this offseason. You don’t want an aging back on a team with a poor offense and plenty of competition for touches in the backfield.

In the same range that Johnson is going, you’d be better off taking back in a timeshare (Leonard Fournette/Ronald Jones II, Devin Singletary/Zach Moss) or one with a higher-upside passing-game role (James Conner, Kenyan Drake).

10. QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

• Current PPR ADP: QB19
• BetIQ PPR Rank: QB24

Roethlisberger threw 603 passes last year even though he didn’t even play in Week 17, and the Steelers led the NFL in pass attempts. Despite that, he finished as only the QB14, as he provides no rushing upside.

To pay off in fantasy, Roethlisberger will need a high volume of passing again and a lot of passing TDs. However, the Steelers figure to be more well-balanced this year after spending a first-round pick on Alabama running back Najee Harris.

In the range where you would take Roethlisberger, there are a lot of high-upside swings on quarterbacks who do have rushing value. Justin Fields and Trey Lance might not be Week 1 starters, but they could pay huge fantasy dividends as the season progresses.

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