Ranking the Most Impactful Player Opt Outs for Fantasy Football

Following the opt out deadline, we analyzed and ranked the most impactful player opt outs on the 2020 fantasy football season.

August 6, 2020 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL players can opt out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the deadline for player opt outs passing at 4 p.m. ET on Thursday, August 6. High-risk players who opted out will receive a $350,000 stipend, while other players will receive a $150,000 stipend.

Over 50 players have opted out for the 2020 season. We analyzed and ranked the most impactful player opt outs that you should keep in mind for fantasy football in 2020.

1. Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Williams saw a total of 213 touches over the last two regular seasons in Kansas City, but he was there when the team needed him most — in the playoffs. Over five playoff games with KC, including Super Bowl LIV, Williams averaged 108 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns per game. The running back decided to opt out due to the sad news that his mother has been diagnosed with Stage 4 cancer.

With Williams sitting out, rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire will likely be a bell-cow back in Andy Reid’s vaunted offense. Since Williams’ announcement on July 29, Edwards-Helaire’s average draft position (ADP) has increased from overall pick 19.69 to 6.79 in 12-team NFFC leagues, putting the rookie only behind proven talents Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas.

Since Reid’s arrival to Kansas City in 2013, Chiefs backs have ranked among the top 10 fantasy runners three times and in the top 20 five times among the group of Jamaal Charles, Kareem Hunt, and Spencer Ware. So it’s a safe bet the rookie will be a highly valuable fantasy pick, though it remains to be seen if he can be worthy of pick 6.79 value.

Elsewhere, 2019 sixth-round pick Darwin Thompson and offseason acquisition DeAndre Washington could see more playing time, moving up one peg on the depth chart. Thompson often received praise from the coaching staff last year, but saw only 46 touches in 12 regular season games. Washington had a career-high 144 touches last season while backing up Josh Jacobs in Oakland, and was notably a teammate of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech. Our RB projections have Washington earning more value this year, but both running backs would be likely to see significant action if something happened to Edwards-Helaire.

 

2. Patriots Defensive Player Opt Outs (Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung)

If Bill Belichick and the Patriots weren’t already tanking in 2020 after the loss of Tom Brady, they might want to consider that option. They lost three linebackers and defensive tackle Danny Shelton in free agency, and now defensive starters Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung have opted out. They’re just two of a whopping eight Patriots to opt out for the 2020 season, most in the NFL.

The Patriots defense was the top-scoring unit in most fantasy leagues last year. Most of their starting secondary from last season remains intact, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. However, the team is set to have at least six new defensive starters and have lost 25.5 of their 47 sacks from last year. That said, perhaps no one in the history of football coaching has gotten more out of defensive players than Belichick. His defenses have finished in the top 10 in points allowed in 15 of his 20 seasons in New England. The Belichick doubters consistently get burned, as evidenced by his 58.0% cover rate against the spread since 2000 (205-147-9). Expecting New England to rank atop all fantasy defenses again this season, is more of a leap of faith with the significant player losses.

 

3. Devin Funchess, WR, Green Bay Packers

Most NFL fans expected the Packers to add receivers this offseason, considering they had only one player reach 500 yards receiving last year (Davante Adams). The team also moved on from free agent bust tight end Jimmy Graham and wide receiver Geronimo Allison. After signing Funchess to a one-year, $2.5 million contract in late March, the Packers surprisingly failed to make any other major receiver acquisitions or draft any help.

That lack of activity could come back to bite the team, with Funchess opting out of the season. He was set to compete for the No. 2 wideout role behind Adams, but instead it will be incumbents Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling vying for that role. Lazard was the second-leading receiver on the team last year, while Valdes-Scantling’s receptions and yards declined after a promising rookie season. NFL wideouts can still emerge in their third seasons, and the Packers are certainly hoping that holds true for Lazard and Valdes-Scantling. For what it’s worth, our wide receiver projections have Valdes-Scantling slightly ahead of Lazard this season, but both wideouts are well outside the top 50 at their position.

 

4. Miami Dolphins Wide Receivers (Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns)

Wide receiver was seen as one of the few areas of strength for the Dolphins after last season. However, the team’s depth has really taken a hit after Wilson and Hurns opted out this week. The veterans were set to be the No. 3 and No. 4 wide receivers on the team, respectively, behind DeVante Parker and Preston Williams. Assuming the Dolphins don’t make any additional moves, players like Jakeem Grant, Gary Jennings Jr., and Isaiah Ford will be competing to pick up those opportunities. The player that emerges could have potential spot starter upside in an offense led by Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or rookie Tua Tagovailoa.

These two player opt outs also could help Williams, who is coming off ACL surgery, and starting tight end Mike Gesicki. Williams is on schedule to be ready for Week 1, but he was far from a sure thing to bounce back to 100% after surgery in November. With less competition, Williams’ job security does get a slight boost. Gesicki made nice progress in his sophomore season with 570 yards and five scores. Gesicki could also benefit with a few more looks given the lack of quality receiving depth for the ‘Phins, where he is already in the Top 12 in our tight end projections.

 

5. Marquise Goodwin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

A former Olympic long jumper, Goodwin was traded from San Francisco to Philadelphia in the offseason. Goodwin is known for his blazing speed, but has struggled to stay healthy over the last two years after a career year in 2017. He was looking at a potentially notable role early in the season, with Alshon Jeffery recovering from a foot injury and first-round pick Jalen Reagor just breaking into the NFL.

DeSean Jackson, who would have likely filled a similar role as Goodwin as a deep threat, also sees an uptick. Goodwin’s opt out puts more pressure on Philadelphia’s deep but unproven wide receiver depth. 2019 second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside should get more time to shine in training camp after a disappointing rookie season, and former University of Houston quarterback turned NFL wide receiver Greg Ward Jr. also has a better shot to make the team after seeing significant playing time late last year. Late-round rookies John Hightower and Quez Watkins could also carve out meaningful roles beyond special teams.

 

6. Geronimo Allison, WR, Detroit Lions

Packers fans became fond of Allison over the last four years, as the lanky wideout made opportune catches. Unfortunately, he failed to emerge when given a chance in the new offense last year, and signed with the rival Lions for $1 million this offseason. He had a good shot to win the No. 4 wideout spot behind Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola before opting out of 2020. That role will likely fall to Travis Fulgham, Marvin Hall, or fifth-round pick Quintez Cephus, though none of the aforementioned players are likely to have much fantasy relevance unless the Lions top three miss time.

 

7. Travis Benjamin, WR, San Francisco 49ers

The speedy Benjamin has had a nice career as a special teamer and wideout between Cleveland and the Chargers, with three 500-plus yard seasons to his name. He struggled to stay healthy over the last two seasons with the Chargers but agreed to a one-year deal with San Francisco in the offseason. We didn’t project Benjamin for much of an offensive role in San Francisco despite the loss of Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel‘s foot injury. Our projections have rookie first round pick Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne as the next two receivers behind Samuel. Still, the absence of Benjamin does a lot for the roster security of young receivers Jalen Hurd, Dante Pettis, and Richie James.

 

8. Matt LaCosse, TE, New England Patriots

The tight end trio of LaCosse, Ben Watson, and Ryan Izzo struggled to fill Rob Gronkowski’s shoes last season. Since then, Watson has retired and now LaCosse has opted out. If it wasn’t clear already, third-round picks Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene are likely to compete for playing time. Rookie tight ends are usually poor bets for fantasy, with few recent exceptions. The Patriots, though, got immediate production the last time they used two early-round picks on tight ends, 10 years ago with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

 

9. Marqise Lee, WR, New England Patriots

Lee made his way from Jacksonville to New England via free agency in April, but he’s opted out of 2020. He was highly productive for the Jaguars in 2016 and 2017, but Lee has only three catches over the last two years due to injuries. Ranking no better than fourth in the pecking coming into training camp, Lee’s opt out could give more opportunities to Jakobi Meyers or Damiere Byrd. With the Patriots expected to run the ball more this year after a change at quarterback, the fantasy impacts of Lee’s absence should be minimal.

 

Other Player Opt Outs Worth Noting

Offense

Marcus Cannon, RT, Patriots: New England’s offensive line struggled to stay healthy last season, and they’re already having issues this year with Cannon’s optout. He’s been with the team since 2011 and has been the regular starter at right tackle over the last four seasons.

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, RG, Chiefs: The Chiefs medical doctor will battle the COVID-19 pandemic instead of playing football this season. Following the news of the right guard’s opt out, the Chiefs signed former Pro Bowl guard Kelechi Osemele.

Ja’Wuan James, RT, Broncos: James stayed healthy for only three games last year after signing in a free agent contract valued at $51 million. He will sit out 2020, which creates an issue for an offensive line that already had its fair share. Denver’s young weapons have been hyped this offseason, but protecting Drew Lock will be key.

Nate Solder, LT, Giants: The veteran Solder hasn’t had great success in New York the last two seasons, after spending most of his career protecting Tom Brady in New England. The Giants will now likely start two rookies at the tackle spots in first-round pick Andrew Thomas and third-round pick Matt Peart. That’s concerning after Daniel Jones fumbled a league-high 18 times last season.

Defense

Star Lotulelei, DT, Bills: Buffalo allowed only 103 rushing yards per game last season, with the help of Lotulelei plugging up the middle. It could be difficult for the Bills to replace their 300-plus pound Star.

Eddie Goldman, NT, Bears: Chicago had to contend with Akiem Hicks missing time along the defensive line last year. Now it will be Goldman who is out. He’s started at nose tackle for the last five years, and the Bears have regularly been near the top of the league in stopping the run.

Michael Pierce, NT, Vikings: Pierce came over from Baltimore to replace Linval Joseph at nose tackle, but the 340 pounder has opted out. Minnesota’s defense has ranked in the top 11 in points allowed in all six of Mike Zimmer’s seasons as head coach. That status could be in jeopardy with the loss of Pierce, along with earlier departures of Everson Griffen and multiple cornerbacks.

C.J. Mosley, ILB, Jets: Mosley signed a five-year, $85 million contract with the Jets last year, but he played only two games in 2019 due to injury. Now, he will be out again this year. It’s another huge loss for a defense that traded star safety Jamal Adams last week.