ADP Values: 10 Underrated Players for Fantasy Football (2021)

Our underrated fantasy football players in 2021 include veterans in new roles, second-year WRs, and one team's entire passing-game corps.

August 14, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

After discussing fantasy football players whom we think are overrated in 2021, we’ll now turn to the underrated players whom we are higher on in our PPR rankings compared to their average draft position (ADP).

Our fantasy projections rely upon a combination of team-level stat projections, similar player analysis, team usage trends, and ADP data. You can read our explanations below and judge for yourself which arguments make the most sense.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Players for 2021

1. Los Angeles Rams’ passing-game weapons (WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp, TE Tyler Higbee)

• Current PPR ADP: WR14 (Woods), WR18 (Kupp), TE13 (Higbee)
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR9 (Woods), WR11 (Kupp), TE7 (Higbee)

Matthew Stafford taking over under center for the Rams generated plenty of optimism about their overall offensive upside. But there appears to be a disconnect between that and where fantasy managers are drafting the Rams’ skill-position starters.

Stafford is going at QB11, which is where our projections have him as well. Since he isn’t a dual-threat, nearly all of his production will come in the passing game. For a QB to rank in that range while producing little rushing value, they almost have to be in a top-six passing offense.

We have the Rams projected for the third-most completions, fourth-most passing yards, and eighth-most passing touchdowns. However, they currently have zero wide receivers among the top 12 in ADP and no tight end in the top 12. In other words, we have a market inefficiency.

Woods and Kupp both caught more than 90 passes last year, but they each averaged career lows in yards per catch. If they bounce back toward their career averages in yards per catch with Stafford under center instead of Jared Goff, they’ll provide positive value based on their current ADPs.

Higbee was a trendy pick heading into last year after he erupted for 522 receiving yards in his final five games in 2019. However, he disappointed last season and finished as TE16.

That late-season run in 2019 happened when fellow tight end Gerald Everett was injured. Everett left for Seattle this offseason, which leaves Higbee as the clear starter. With Stafford now in the fold as well, Higbee could be in line for a post-hype bounce back.

We don’t know that Woods, Kupp, and Higbee will all outperform their ADP—injuries always have a say in that—but we advise buying up shares of these guys.

2. WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

• Current PPR ADP: WR23
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR19 

Despite dealing with injuries, COVID-19, and quarterback inconsistency as a rookie last season, Brandon Aiyuk still managed to average more 75 yards from scrimmage per game. In a six-game midseason stretch, he hauled in 7.5 catches per game and scored four touchdowns.

The 2020 No. 25 overall pick flashed elite physical tools, including this early glimpse on Sunday Night Football. Our player similarity projections are also high on him based on his rookie-year production, draft position, and size.

Aiyuk had the fourth-highest average points behind only Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs, the consensus top three wide receivers in drafts this year. Players with top-10 seasons at a similar age/experience level include Percy Harvin, Julio Jones, Jeremy Maclin, DK Metcalf, Hakeem Nicks, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The low passing volume in San Francisco might hurt Aiyuk, as could a healthy George Kittle eating into his production. However, that’s offset by what should be a more stable and explosive quarterback situation with either rookie Trey Lance or veteran Jimmy Garoppolo.

Aiyuk is falling outside the top 20 in typical drafts, but his upside more than justifies that cost. He averaged more yards per game and touchdowns per game than Dallas Cowboys rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb, the current WR11 based on ADP.

3. WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

• Current PPR ADP: WR25
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR20

Tee Higgins is another second-year receiver who profiles as a potential breakout candidate. He started to emerge as a rookie, but that was somewhat muted when Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Prior to Burrow’s injury, the Bengals were averaging more than 40 passing attempts per game. That fell to fewer than 30 per game after he went down. Still, Higgins finished with a team-high 908 receiving yards and six touchdowns on only 67 catches and 108 targets.

The Bengals’ decision to draft Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth overall pick is dulling optimism for Higgins. But this offense can feed multiple receivers, and we still like the prospects of a 22-year-old who showed promise like Higgins did last year.

A.J. Green is gone, leaving 104 inefficient targets to be filled. There is no tight end demanding targets in this offense, and pass-catching running back Giovani Bernard is now in Tampa Bay.

The Bengals should be throwing a lot, have young talent on the outside, and are often likely to be trailing. That’s a recipe for fantasy success.

4. RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders

• Current PPR ADP: RB38
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB27

Kenyan Drake signed a fully guaranteed two-year, $11 million deal with the Raiders this offseason. However, he’s being drafted as the clear backup to Josh Jacobs, behind several other backs with uncertain outlooks.

Drake has had three straight seasons with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage. That includes two seasons with 50-plus catches before he wasn’t used as much as a receiver in Arizona last year. But he profiles as a receiving back who may be best suited for combo duty.

Last year, only 23% of the Raiders’ completions went to running backs, which was the lowest percentage of any Jon Gruden-coached team. Over his coaching career, running backs have hauled in an average of 31% of his teams’ completions.

Drake is likely to play a role similar to Charlie Garner or Michael Pittman, two backs who thrived in Gruden’s system. Garner had 72 catches in his first year with the Raiders in 2001, playing in a platoon with Tyrone Wheatley. When Gruden went to Tampa Bay, he acquired Pittman from Arizona, and Pittman averaged over 50 catches over the ensuing four seasons while platooning with a variety of backs (Mike Alstott, Thomas Jones, and Cadillac Williams).

You want backs with receiving versatility as potential breakout candidates. Drake has receiving upside and plays for a team with a bad defense that is likely to be in shootouts. He is in the Kareem Hunt role, but he’s coming at a significantly cheaper price than Hunt, the current RB23.

Last year, Hunt was a viable fantasy option even when Chubb was healthy, but he vaulted into RB1 territory in games that Chubb missed. Drake has that same upside this year.

5. WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

• Current PPR ADP: WR32
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR28

The fantasy community is split on Jerry Jeudy versus Courtland Sutton (WR33 by ADP), who missed all but one game last year. The safer bet is on the 22-year-old Jeudy, as Sutton is coming off an ACL tear.

We’ve already covered the second-year breakout angle with Higgins and Aiyuk. Here’s another nugget to illustrate why there might be value with Jeudy.

Jeudy is younger than both Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, his two teammates at Alabama whom he outperformed in their two years together. He’s going just behind Smith (WR31) and about 10 spots ahead of Waddle (WR43) despite already having a year of NFL experience and cobbling together solid production despite a bad situation in Denver.

The Broncos’ quarterback play was awful last year. They even had to start a wide receiver under center in one game, and they completed only one pass that day. Jeudy probably would have finished with more than 900 receiving yards as a rookie without that zero-catch game.

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio named Teddy Bridgewater the starter over Drew Lock to begin the season after a “really, really close” competition, per ESPN’s Jeff Legwold. Either way, Denver’s situation under center should be better than it was in 2020, which will only help Jeudy return positive value on his ADP.

6. RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

• Current PPR ADP: RB13
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB9

Joe Mixon is coming at a discount because he missed a big chunk of last year with an undisclosed foot injury. However, his per-game stats were exactly on par with his two previous seasons, and he had two straight campaigns with at least 1,400 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns before last year.

Mixon is still only 25 years old and very much in the midst of his prime. Pass-catching back Giovani Bernard is now gone, and the team has no clear backup who will to demand touches in a timeshare.

Mixon is on the short list of backs who could have the NFL’s highest touch share. He’s already shown the ability to have 35-45 catch seasons, and that ceiling is even higher with Bernard gone.

7. QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

• Current PPR ADP: QB20
• TR PPR Rank: QB15

Trey Lance isn’t likely to be the Niners’ Week 1 starter. Yet he’s going off the board at QB20, which puts him among the final quarterbacks drafted in a typical 12-team league.

Although Lance is a highly volatile investment, there’s an argument to take him as your second quarterback to maximize your win probability added.

If Lance ever does supplant Jimmy Garoppolo as the Niners’ starting quarterback, he’ll likely be a top-12 fantasy option most weeks. He’s likely to have tremendous rushing upside, much like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson.

At QB20, the decision comes down to taking an established veteran who’s likely to start right away but is not projected in the upper half of points per game or taking Lance.

The ideal move here would be to pair a solid veteran quarterback whom you can start for the early part of the season with an upside play like Lance, who could propel your team down the stretch.

8. RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

• Current PPR ADP: RB8
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB5

What if I told you that you could get a running back who has finished among the top five at the position in each of the last two seasons toward the bottom of the first round in most drafts? Well, that’s what is going on with Aaron Jones.

Perhaps it’s some rankings inertia, as the offseason Aaron Rodgers drama caused Packers skill-position players to be devalued, but Jones hasn’t bounced back. Although he went from a league-high 19 touchdowns in 2019 to 11 last season and missed two games, he still finished as the RB5.

Receiving back Jamaal Williams, who averaged 35 catches with the Packers over the last two years, is now in Detroit. Jones should be able to expand his work in the passing game even if second-year back A.J. Dillon steals more of the rushing work.

9. RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

• Current PPR ADP: RB34
• BetIQ PPR Rank: RB30

James Conner has battled injuries the last few years in Pittsburgh, but he has still been productive.

He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season for a struggling Steelers running game, while all other Pittsburgh players combined to average 3.1 yards per carry. He also has receiving versatility, having caught 124 passes for 963 yards and four touchdowns over the past three seasons.

Conner is now moving into a situation in Arizona where Chase Edmonds, the projected top back, has yet to finish with even 100 rushing attempts in a season. It’s not out of the question that the fantasy community has the ultimate order incorrect here. Our player similarity results have Conner ahead of Edmonds.

For now, we have Edmonds projected with the slightly larger receiving share and Conner with the slightly higher rushing share and more goal-line opportunities. It’s worth taking a chance on Conner given the ambiguous workload distribution, the explosiveness of the Arizona offense, and the relatively low cost.

10. WR Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs

• Current PPR ADP: WR51
• BetIQ PPR Rank: WR39

This one is all about opportunity and the quality of the offense.

Mecole Hardman has been inconsistent during his first two NFL seasons and hasn’t broken out yet. However, he’s still only 23 years old and is a projected starter in our top projected passing offense by both yards and touchdowns.

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should still command the biggest share of this offense. But Sammy Watkins is now gone, and the Chiefs did not make any moves to replace him with a starter in front of Hardman.

Despite that, Hardman is going below where he went last year in drafts (WR47). He’s basically a low-cost flier at the end of drafts.

Given the upside of the offense, his potential to be a big-play threat (he dropped from 20.7 to 13.7 yards per catch last year), and his reduced competition for touches behind Hill and Kelce, Hardman is a sneaky play to take advantage of some post-hype market downturn.

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