Two Value Picks for Each Round in a Fantasy Draft
Here are the picks we would target as great values in each round of a fantasy draft, depending on where in the round you are drafting.
August 19, 2020 - by Jason Lisk
(Photo by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)
We’ve broken down sleepers at each position, and team situations, and depth chart battles to watch. To close out, we will highlight a couple of value picks in each round today. Tomorrow, we will focus on some picks to avoid at their current price.
For purposes of this exercise, we will be looking at average draft values from FantasyPros, across Standard, Half-PPR and PPR formats, and comparing those composite rankings to our Half-PPR rankings.
Round 1 Values
WR Michael Thomas: Thomas can generally be had after the first four running backs are gone. You can make a pretty good argument that he is the clear top WR available, though, and justifies going anywhere after Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are off the board. Even if Drew Brees were to miss time, Thomas would still thrive with Jameis Winston at quarterback.
RB Joe Mixon: We are largely in line with the consensus rankings for the first half of the first round. You can’t go wrong with just sticking to the consensus draft board early. Mixon provides some value in the latter half of the first round, and also provides upside if the Bengals are an improved offense in 2020 with Joe Burrow moving in to quarterback.
Round 2 Values
RB Miles Sanders: Sanders is one of our league-winning targets. You could justify taking him at the end of the first round. You should be ecstatic if he falls to you by the mid-to-late 2nd round.
RB Austin Ekeler: Ekeler was a huge boom last year as a receiving back with the Chargers, and was one of the highest scorers with Melvin Gordon holding out. The Chargers won’t pass as much–but Ekeler figures to have almost all of the receiving production out of the backfield. He also profiles as capable of increasing his rushing production. So while there is some downside risk of the change in offense, the upside is that he should be “the man,” and provide balanced rushing/receiving stats capable of a Top 10 pick, for a second round price.
Round 3 Values
WR Kenny Golladay: Golladay is sneaking into the top of the third round in some drafts, and is usually going somewhere around the turn. If you can get him early in the third, he offers Top 6 upside as a guy who was already productive last year despite half a season without Matthew Stafford and could be in for an even bigger year if Stafford stays healthy.
WR Adam Thielen: Thielen is a good bounce-back candidate in 2020 after suffering through injuries last year. Stefon Diggs is gone, and Thielen should be the clear top target in Minnesota. He has Top 10 upside for a late third round price in most drafts.
Round 4 Values
WR Calvin Ridley: Ridley is one of our breakout candidates in 2020 and a league-winning target playing in Atlanta’s high-volume passing offense.
WR A.J. Brown: Brown had a breakout rookie season, and is the clear top receiver on the Titans. This was a team that had very low passing volume a year ago. A full season with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and the potential for some upward regression in team pass volume means Brown can still outperform his ADP.
Round 5 Values
WR Robert Woods: Is Robert Woods just perennially underappreciated? We project the Rams’ passing offense to be near the top of the league, and for the touchdowns to improve. Woods only had 2 last year, while Jared Goff only threw 22. If he puts up yet another 80+ catch, 1100 yard season, and the TD numbers improve, Woods will be a tremendous value here.
WR DeVante Parker: Parker finally had a big year last year, finishing as the 6th-highest scoring wide receiver. And you can get him in the fifth round. Sure, his 9 receiving touchdowns will probably regress, but he is the top target on the team, the quarterback position now includes Tua Tagovailoa in addition to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he’s still only 27 years old.
Round 6 Values
RB David Montgomery: Montgomery’s rookie season was a disappointment, relative to his expectation going in as the starter. He ended up with 242 rush attempts but only averaged 3.7 yards per carry and scored 6 rushing touchdowns. But value here is relative, and he’s not costing a top 4 round pick. In this round, getting a back likely to get the majority of his team rushing production, and still young enough to improve, is worth the chance.
RB D’Andre Swift: The Lions’ rookie has the potential to provide huge value in the offense with Matt Stafford returning. While we don’t know how he will do as a receiver, he does have the skill set to be a factor in the passing game and also take the lead role at running back.
Round 7 Values
QB Matt Ryan: We project Matt Ryan to have the second-most passing yards in the league, behind Patrick Mahomes. At this point in the draft, he’s going just after some veterans like Tom Brady and Drew Brees and young guys like Josh Allen. We have him projected in front of all of them.
RB Ronald Jones: Jones is one of our undervalued sleeper picks in Tampa Bay, with his draft position being held down because of the early presence of rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Even with head coach Bruce Arians publicly saying Jones was the main man, his draft position still makes him relatively cheap for a 23-year-old back coming off a 1,000+ yard from scrimmage season and playing on a team expected to compete for a playoff spot.
Round 8 Values
WR Will Fuller: Will Fuller has battled plenty of injuries in the past, but has the potential for a big year in Houston with DeAndre Hopkins gone to Arizona.
WR Marvin Jones: There’s a disconnect that can provide value in fantasy Football when it comes to the Lions’ offense. Matthew Stafford is being drafted at QB13. But other than Kenny Golladay, no other tight end or wide receiver on the team is being drafted highly. We think Marvin Jones is being under appreciated here and is a solid value play as long as Stafford hits more than 4,000 yards receiving in this offense.
Round 9 Values
WR Darius Slayton: Darius Slayton is a breakout candidate in 2020 after a rookie season where he led the Giants in receiving touchdowns (8) and in yards per target (8.8).
WR Diontae Johnson: Johnson became a starter only after Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. He ended up averaging more catches than JuJu Smith-Schuster as a rookie. Yet, he’s going more than five rounds later than Juju. If Roethlisberger does bounce back, Johnson will be a big value in the Steelers’ offense.
Round 10 Values
RB Tevin Coleman: Getting Coleman in the 10th is another good value, in a “hot hand” committee backfield situation, involving one of the best rushing teams in the league. Matt Breida is no longer in this committee situation and Coleman could be a big beneficiary (Jerick McKinnon, off missing two straight seasons to injury, could have a role as a third down back). The coaching staff still has a lot invested in him and it wouldn’t be a major surprise if he led the team in rushing yards.
WR Jamison Crowder: Crowder had 70 catches for 758 yards and 6 TDs in the 13 games with Sam Darnold at quarterback last year. Wide receiver Robby Anderson is also gone to Carolina, reducing Crowder’s competition for targets.
Round 11 Values
QB Daniel Jones: We highlighted Jones as one of our quarterback sleepers, and he has the upside to break out in 2020 with a Giants’ offense that should be healthier than in 2019.
TE T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson is one of our favorite tight end sleepers this year, and if you wait on the position, you’ll want to target him by this round, if not earlier.
Round 12 Values
QB Jared Goff: Round 13 brings two quarterbacks who would be great values as part of a QB committee at this stage. Goff should see some positive TD regression after throwing for over 4.600 yards with only 22 TD passes in 2019.
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo was a low-volume passer last year in San Francisco, at high efficiency. If the pass attempts increase a bit, he could be a fantasy starter.
Round 13 or Later Values
WR Michael Pittman, Jr.: Pittman is a favorite rookie receiver target because he is coming at a much cheaper price than some others, but still has the potential to emerge as one of the top two receiving options on an Indianapolis team that could pass for more than 4,000 yards.
RB Antonio Gibson: Gibson has the potential to fill a major role as a receiving back for Washington. This is a team that doesn’t have other backs with a history of receiver usage, and also lacks other established receiving options outside of Terry McLaurin. With the release of Derrius Guice, the backfield is thrown wide open. Gibson has limited college touches, which is holding his value down, but he was very productive when he did get opportunities. He also has good size for a running back, so he’s not a diminutive type like a James White or Tarik Cohen who profiles as only a receiver out of the backfield. So far, his ADP value hasn’t shot up, though he is rising in expert drafts. He’s worth targeting well before this round, especially in PPR formats.
RB Nyheim Hines: Philip Rivers loves throwing to backs near the goal line (23 touchdown passes to running backs in the last three years). Hines could be a PPR machine with Rivers at quarterback for the Colts.
TE Irv Smith, Jr.: Smith, Jr. had over 30 catches as a rookie while splitting time with veteran Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota. He’s a year two breakout candidate with a draft value held down by the presence of Rudolph. But if he takes over for Rudolph more fully in 2020, he could provide a big value late.
K Younghoe Koo: Koo went 23 of 26 on field goals over the last 8 games of the season, after taking over for veteran Matt Bryant in Atlanta. As a team, Atlanta had 32 made field goals last year, tied for 3rd-most in the NFL. You can get Koo way after the top guys have gone. Atlanta is likely to be in shootouts, and getting a kicker in a high-scoring dome offense is often profitable.
DEF/ST Tampa Bay Bucs: Tampa is projected to contend for a playoff spot in 2020. This is a defense that should be in a lot more favorable situations this year. The offense turned the ball over a ton last year, but replacing Jameis Winston with Tom Brady should reverse that and help improve the points allowed. Plus you get NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett and MLB Devin White moving into his second season, on a defense that is on the rise.
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