NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL ATL
Points 126.7 118.7
Total Points   245.4
Points From 2-Pointers 59.9 58.6
Points From 3-Pointers 47.5 41.1
Points From Free Throws 19.3 19.0
Shooting MIL ATL
Field Goals Made 45.8 43.0
Field Goals Attempted 88.1 93.9
Field Goal % 52.0% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 29.9 29.3
2 Pointers Attempted 49.3 56.3
2 Point Shooting % 60.8% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 15.8 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 38.9 37.6
3 Point Shooting % 40.7% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 19.3 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 24.0
Free Throw % 77.5% 79.2%
Ball Control MIL ATL
Rebounds 49.7 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.5 35.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 13.7
Turnovers 11.9 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.0
Steals 6.0 6.4
Fouls 18.0 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL ATL
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 102.7 107.8
% of Possessions with MIL ATL
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.4% 31.3%
Player Fouled 16.8% 17.2%
Turnover 11.4% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL ATL
Shot Blocked 4.3% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 25.7%