NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL ATL
Points 125.2 116.6
Total Points   241.8
Points From 2-Pointers 60.2 58.0
Points From 3-Pointers 46.0 40.3
Points From Free Throws 18.9 18.3
Shooting MIL ATL
Field Goals Made 45.5 42.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.7 92.9
Field Goal % 51.8% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 30.1 29.0
2 Pointers Attempted 49.0 55.6
2 Point Shooting % 61.4% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 15.3 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 38.7 37.3
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 18.9 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 23.4
Free Throw % 77.3% 78.3%
Ball Control MIL ATL
Rebounds 49.9 48.1
Rebounds - Defensive 39.9 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 12.9
Turnovers 12.0 10.7
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.7
Steals 6.2 6.4
Fouls 17.7 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL ATL
Total Possessions 104.1
Effective Scoring Chances 102.1 106.3
% of Possessions with MIL ATL
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.4% 31.3%
Player Fouled 17.0% 17.0%
Turnover 11.5% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL ATL
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 24.4%