NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL MIA
Points 115.5 109.3
Total Points   224.8
Points From 2-Pointers 53.1 55.0
Points From 3-Pointers 45.2 36.4
Points From Free Throws 17.2 17.9
Shooting MIL MIA
Field Goals Made 41.6 39.6
Field Goals Attempted 84.8 88.1
Field Goal % 49.1% 45.0%
2 Pointers Made 26.6 27.5
2 Pointers Attempted 44.6 54.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.5% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 15.1 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 40.2 33.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 17.2 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 22.1
Free Throw % 78.1% 80.8%
Ball Control MIL MIA
Rebounds 49.1 47.0
Rebounds - Defensive 40.1 36.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.2
Turnovers 11.6 10.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.8
Steals 5.4 6.3
Fouls 17.7 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL MIA
Total Possessions 100.6
Effective Scoring Chances 98.0 100.7
% of Possessions with MIL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 36.3% 29.9%
Player Fouled 16.5% 17.6%
Turnover 11.6% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.2% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 20.3%