NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL DAL
Points 116.6 110.7
Total Points   227.4
Points From 2-Pointers 58.1 49.2
Points From 3-Pointers 40.3 44.4
Points From Free Throws 18.2 17.1
Shooting MIL DAL
Field Goals Made 42.5 39.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.3 88.7
Field Goal % 48.6% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 24.6
2 Pointers Attempted 49.5 47.6
2 Point Shooting % 58.7% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 14.8
3 Pointers Attempted 37.9 41.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 18.2 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 22.8
Free Throw % 74.2% 74.8%
Ball Control MIL DAL
Rebounds 54.9 45.7
Rebounds - Defensive 43.2 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.0
Turnovers 12.0 9.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 2.9
Steals 5.3 5.3
Fouls 18.5 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL DAL
Total Possessions 102.6
Effective Scoring Chances 102.3 101.7
% of Possessions with MIL DAL
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 36.3%
Player Fouled 17.4% 18.0%
Turnover 11.7% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 5.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL DAL
Shot Blocked 3.3% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 17.3%